10 - 17 May 2023
Rainfall
Temperature
Rainfall anomalies
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over southern South Sudan into northern South Sudan, western Ethiopia, and north-eastern Somalia.
- Drier than usual conditions expected over southern regions of South Sudan, Ethiopia, and Somalia, northern and western Kenya, Uganda, and northern and coastal regions of Tanzania.
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures forecasted over most parts of the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA).
- Cooler than usual temperatures expected over north-eastern South Sudan into western Ethiopia, north-eastern Kenya and other isolated regions.
Exceptional rainfall
- Heavy to very heavy rainfall (top 10%-5%) rainfall expected over north-eastern Somalia and a few regions spanning eastern, central, and western Ethiopia.
Mean temperatures
- Hot temperatures (above 32 ℃) expected over southern Sudan into neighbouring northern parts of South Sudan, north-western Eritrea, and Afar region of Ethiopia.
- Moderate to high temperatures (20 - 32℃) expected over central to northern Sudan, South Sudan, central to northern Uganda, most parts of Tanzania, eastern and northern Kenya, Somalia, Djibouti, Eritrea, and eastern parts of Ethiopia.
- Mild conditions (less than 20℃) expected over central to northern Ethiopia, central to western Kenya, Rwanda, Burundi, and isolated areas in southern and northern Tanzania.
Total rainfall
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected over north-eastern Somalia, southern and western Ethiopia, and most parts of central and northern South Sudan.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected over Rwanda, Burundi, eastern and southern Tanzania, most parts of Uganda and Somalia, southern Sudan, and northern and eastern parts of Ethiopia.
- Dry conditions expected over central to northern Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, north-eastern Ethiopia, northern and eastern Kenya, and most parts of central, northern, and southern Tanzania.
