11 August 2026 - 18 August 2026
Rainfall
Temperature
Rainfall Anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over western parts of Ethiopia, northern Uganda, isolated areas over central Kenya, isolated parts of south-western Sudan, and several parts of South Sudan.
- Less than usual rainfall expected over central and northern parts of Ethiopia, northern Uganda, isolated areas over central Kenya, southern and south-western Sudan, and several parts of South Sudan.
Exceptional Rainfall
- Rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile expected over parts of western and southern Sudan, central to northern parts of Ethiopia, and isolated areas in both north-eastern and western South Sudan.
Floods
- Flooding incidences expected over some parts of western Sudan, central to north-western parts of Ethiopia, with pocket areas in northern and western South Sudan.
- Communities in high-risk areas are advised to exercise caution during this period.
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Cooler than usual temperatures expected over a few isolated regions across the GHA.
Mean Temperature
- Elevated temperatures exceeding 32°C expected over Djibouti, northern parts of Sudan, coastal parts of Eritrea, northern coastal regions of Somalia, and north-eastern parts of Ethiopia.
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32°C) expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20°C) expected over central to western regions of Kenya, central to southern Tanzania, central to northern parts of Ethiopia and western regions of both Rwanda and Burundi.
Total Rainfall
- Heavy rainfall (greater than 200 mm) expected over parts of western Ethiopia, western South Sudan and isolated areas over south-western Sudan.
- Moderate rainfall (50-200 mm) expected over southern Sudan, most parts of South Sudan, northern Uganda, few areas in western regions of Kenya and central to northern parts of Ethiopia.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected over eastern and southern Tanzania, western and coastal parts of Kenya, central and eastern Uganda, south-eastern South Sudan, southern and northern coastal parts of Somalia, central regions of Sudan, and some parts of eastern Ethiopia.
Heat Stress
Elevated heat stress within the ‘Extreme Caution’ category expected over most parts of South Sudan, Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, central to northern Somalia and north-eastern regions of Ethiopia. Elevated heat stress within the ‘Danger’ category expected over parts of the Afar region in Ethiopia extending into parts of central Eritrea, isolated areas along the coastline of Eritrea and a few pockets over both northern Sudan and the coastline border of Southern Djibouti and northern Somalia.
