12 - 19 December 2023
Rainfall
Temperature
- Heavy rainfall is anticipated in central parts of Tanzania, Burundi and southern parts of Rwanda. This is likely to worsen the flooding situation experienced over isolated flood-prone areas.
Rainfall anomalies
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over central to northern Tanzania, southern and western Kenya, Rwanda, Burundi, and isolated areas in Ethiopia and Uganda.
- Drier than usual conditions over western and southern parts of Tanzania.
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures predicted over most parts of Ethiopia, Somalia, Uganda, central to western Kenya, Rwanda, Burundi, Tanzania and parts of Sudan.
- Cooler than usual temperatures expected over eastern parts of South Sudan, western and central Sudan and other isolated regions across the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA).
Exceptional rainfall
- Heavy to very heavy rainfall expected in south-western Kenya into northern and central Tanzania, most parts of Burundi and southern Rwanda.
Mean temperatures
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over most parts of southern to south-eastern Sudan, South Sudan, central to northern Uganda, northern and eastern Kenya, Tanzania, Djibouti, southern to south-eastern parts of Ethiopia and most parts of Somalia.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) expected over parts of central to northern Sudan, northern to central Ethiopia, central to western Kenya, northern Somalia western regions of Rwanda and most parts of Burundi.
Heat Stress
- Elevated levels of heat stress are likely in coastal regions of Tanzania, Kenya and Somalia, as well as regions of eastern South Sudan. Citizens are encouraged to keep hydrated during these times.
Total rainfall
- Heavy rainfall (greater than 200mm) expected in parts of central Tanzania, Burundi and southern Rwanda.
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected over most parts of Rwanda, Tanzania and southern Kenya.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected in parts of coastal Sudan, coastal Eritrea, south-eastern South Sudan, central to southern Uganda, most parts of Kenya, Ethiopian Highlands and southern Somalia.
- Dry conditions expected over Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, most parts of South Sudan, most parts of Ethiopia, central to northern Somalia, and northern Uganda.
