13-20 October 2020



Heavy rainfall
  • Heavy rainfall (top 10% on record) to very heavy rainfall (top 5% on record) is expected over parts of central Somalia; south-eastern, central to western Ethiopia; and north-western Uganda into the southern border with South Sudan.

Temperature forecast
  • High daily-mean temperatures above 32oC are expected in few places in northern Ethiopia.
  • Moderate daily-mean temperatures between 20-32oC are expected in Sudan, South Sudan, north-eastern and south-eastern Ethiopia, much of Eritrea, Djibouti, Somalia, eastern and north-western Kenya, much of Uganda, eastern Rwanda, eastern Burundi, and much of Tanzania.
  • Low daily-mean temperatures below 20oC are expected over central to southern Ethiopia, western Kenya, south-western Uganda, western Rwanda and Burundi, and parts of southern Tanzania.
Rainfall forecast
  • Heavy rainfall above 200 mm is expected in parts of southern and western Ethiopia.
  • Moderate rainfall between 50-200 mm is expected in parts of western and southern Ethiopia, central Somalia, western and northern South Sudan, much of Uganda, western Kenya, parts of Rwanda, and parts of southern Tanzania.
  • Light rainfall less than 50 mm is expected in southern Sudan, central Eritrea, parts of northern and southern Ethiopia; parts of northern, central to southern Somalia; southern Kenya; eastern and western Tanzania; and Burundi.
  • Dry conditions are expected in central to northern Sudan, northern and southern Eritrea, Djibouti, parts of central to north-eastern Ethiopia, northern Somalia, eastern to north-western Kenya, and central Tanzania.