13 - 20 February 2024



Heavy rainfall

Exceptional rainfall

  • Heavy rainfall (exceeding 90th percentile) expected over parts of Burundi and central to southern Tanzania.
Floods update

The moderate to heavy rainfall expected in central to southern regions of Tanzania is likely to cause flash floods in the flood-prone areas.

Rainfall forecast (anomalies)

Rainfall anomalies

  • Wetter than usual conditions expected over most parts of Rwanda, Burundi, Tanzania, and central to southern Uganda.
  • Drier than usual conditions expected in a few regions in western and southern Tanzania.
Temperature forecast (Anomalies)

Temperature anomalies

  • Warmer than usual temperatures predicted over most parts of the GHA.
  • Cooler than usual temperatures predicted in parts of northern Sudan and other isolated regions across the GHA.
Temperature forecast

Mean temperatures

  • Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over most parts of Tanzania and Kenya, Uganda, South Sudan, southern Sudan, western and eastern Ethiopia, Eritrea, Djibouti, and Somalia.
  • Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) expected over parts of northern Sudan, central Ethiopia, central to western Kenya, and other isolated parts across the region.
Heat Stress

Heat Stress

  • Elevated levels of heat stress expected in eastern Tanzania, eastern Kenya, southern Somalia, and most parts of South Sudan.
Rainfall forecast

Total rainfall

  • Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected over most parts of Rwanda, Burundi, and Tanzania.
  • Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected in Uganda, southern South Sudan, central Ethiopia, western, and coastal Kenya.
  • Dry conditions expected over most parts of Sudan, northern South Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, Somalia, and northern and eastern Kenya.