13 - 20 September 2022
Rainfall
Temperature
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over northern Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, northern Somalia, south-eastern South Sudan, western Kenya and most parts of Uganda, Ethiopia, Rwanda, Burundi, and Tanzania.
- Near usual temperatures expected over most parts of southern Sudan into northern South Sudan, eastern Kenya into southern Somalia and south-eastern Ethiopia.
- Colder than usual temperatures predicted over a few regions in southern Sudan, coastal Kenya, Tanzania, and other isolated parts across the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA).
Rainfall anomalies
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over most parts of southern Sudan, northern Ethiopia, north-western Eritrea, and northern South Sudan.
- Drier than usual conditions predicted over parts of eastern Uganda, south-eastern South Sudan, southern Ethiopia, and central to northern Somalia.
Exceptional rainfall
- Heavy to very heavy (top 10-5%) rainfall expected over parts of southern Sudan, northern South Sudan, eastern and north-western Ethiopia.
Mean temperatures
- Hot conditions (above 32 ℃) expected over northern Sudan, parts of Afar region of Ethiopia, and northern coastal regions of Somalia.
- Moderate temperatures (20 - 32 ℃) expected over most parts of Sudan, South Sudan, Eritrea, Somalia, eastern and northern Kenya, eastern and south-eastern Ethiopia, northern Uganda, and most parts of Tanzania.
- Cold conditions (less than 20℃) expected in central to southern Ethiopia, parts of central to western Kenya, western Rwanda and Burundi, and parts of central Tanzania.
Total rainfall
- Heavy rainfall (above 200mm) predicted over localized areas in central Ethiopia and north-western South Sudan.
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected over southern Sudan, central to western Ethiopia, much of South Sudan, western Uganda, and parts of western Kenya.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected over central areas of Sudan, Eritrea, northern and southern Somalia, coastal and part of central Kenya, eastern Uganda, Rwanda, northern Burundi, and north-western and coastal Tanzania.
- Dry conditions expected over northern Sudan, part of northern Somalia, southern Ethiopia, eastern and northern Kenya, most parts of Tanzania and southern Burundi.
