18 - 25 October 2022
Rainfall
Temperature
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected in most parts of Sudan, South Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, Ethiopia, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, western Tanzania and northern Somalia.
- Colder than usual temperatures predicted over parts of eastern Tanzania, eastern Kenya and parts of southern Somalia.
Rainfall anomalies
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over cross-border regions of Sudan-South Sudan, Ethiopia-Somalia and parts of southern and western Ethiopia.
- Drier than usual conditions predicted over most parts of Rwanda, Burundi, Uganda, Kenya, northern and southern Tanzania, southern South Sudan and southern Somalia.
Exceptional rainfall
- Heavy to very heavy (top 10-5%) rainfall expected over parts of northern Somalia and south-eastern Ethiopia.
Mean temperatures
- Hot conditions with temperatures above 32 ℃ expected over parts of the Afar region in Ethiopia.
- Moderate temperatures between 20 - 32 ℃ expected over most parts of Sudan, South Sudan, Eritrea, Somalia, eastern and northern Kenya, eastern Ethiopia, central to northern Uganda, and most parts of Tanzania.
- Cold conditions with temperatures less than 20℃ expected in parts of central to northern Ethiopia, central to western Kenya, western Rwanda and a few places in northern to southern Tanzania.
Total rainfall
- Heavy rainfall (above 200mm) expected over isolated areas in southern and western Ethiopia.
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected over north-western South Sudan, south-western Uganda, parts of western and southern Ethiopia into northern Somalia.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected over southern Sudan, most parts of South Sudan, parts of western and southern Ethiopia, central to northern Uganda, western and coastal Kenya, coastal Tanzania, Burundi, and southern Somalia.
- Dry conditions expected over central to northern Sudan, Djibouti, north-western Ethiopia, south-eastern South Sudan, northern and eastern Kenya and most parts of Tanzania.
