19 - 26 September 2023



Rainfall forecast (anomalies)

Rainfall anomalies

Wetter than usual conditions expected over southern Sudan, western and northern Ethiopia, northern and southern Somalia, southern Uganda and most parts of Rwanda.

Drier than usual conditions expected over parts of central to northern Somalia, most parts of South Sudan and parts of central Uganda and western Kenya.

Temperature forecast (Anomalies)

Temperature anomalies

  • Warmer than usual temperatures predicted over most parts of the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA).
Heavy rainfall

Exceptional rainfall

  • Heavy to very heavy rainfall expected in northern Somalia and central regions of Ethiopia.
Temperature forecast

Mean temperatures

  • Hot temperatures (above 32 ℃) expected over central to northern Sudan, coastal regions of Eritrea, Afar region of Ethiopia, parts of Djibouti and north-western coastal regions of Somalia.
  • Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over southern parts of Sudan, South Sudan, southern Ethiopia, Eritrea, Djibouti, Somalia, northern and eastern Kenya, and western and south-eastern Tanzania.
  • Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) expected over central to southern Ethiopia, western Kenya, central parts of Tanzania and a few regions over south-western Uganda and western Rwanda.
Rainfall forecast

Total rainfall

Heavy rainfall (above 200mm) expected over few places in south-western Ethiopia.

Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected over southern Sudan, western and northern South Sudan, parts of southern Uganda and northern Somalia.

Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected in central Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, central to southern Somalia, southern and north-eastern Ethiopia, parts of eastern and western Kenya, central Uganda and Rwanda.

Dry conditions expected over central to northern Sudan, central to western and southern Tanzania and parts of eastern and northern Kenya.