20 - 27 August 2025
Rainfall
Temperature
Rainfall anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over central to western Kenya, Uganda, northern and south-western parts of Ethiopia, eastern South Sudan, Eritrea, and western and eastern Sudan.
- Less than usual rainfall expected over southern regions of Sudan, central to western South Sudan and central to western Ethiopia.
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over northern Sudan, western South Sudan, and most parts of Ethiopia, Somalia, Uganda, Kenya, Tanzania, Rwanda and Burundi.
- Cooler than usual temperatures expected over the central to eastern parts of Sudan, eastern South Sudan, Eritrea, northern Ethiopia, western Kenya, and northern Somalia.
- Rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile (the highest 10% on record) expected over central to western Kenya, northeastern Uganda, eastern South Sudan, most parts of central Sudan, northern Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Djibouti.
- There is a likelihood of Flooding incidences over the flood prone areas in northern to north-eastern Ethiopia, central to central-eastern Sudan, north-eastern parts of South Sudan, western to north-western Kenya, and Eritrea.
Mean temperatures
- High temperatures (>32℃) expected in northern Sudan, and the Red Sea coastal regions.
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over Somalia, Djibouti, eastern and south-eastern Ethiopia, Eritrea, central to southern Sudan, South Sudan, central to northern Uganda, eastern and northern Kenya, western and eastern Tanzania and eastern parts of both Rwanda and Burundi.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) expected over western parts of Rwanda, western Burundi, central Uganda, and the Rift Valley region of Tanzania, Kenya, and Ethiopia.
Heat Stress
- Elevated heat stress levels expected in northern Sudan, parts of the Red Sea coast, Afar region in Ethiopia, Djibouti, and coastal parts of Somalia
Total rainfall
- Heavy rainfall (above 200mm expected over cross border areas on western Eritrea and south-eastern Sudan.
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected in central to southern Sudan, eastern South Sudan, Djibouti, Uganda, central to western Kenya, central to western Ethiopia, and most parts of Eritrea.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected over central to northern Sudan, western South Sudan, parts of central Ethiopia, Somalia, and northern parts of Rwanda.
