21 - 28 November 2023
Rainfall
Temperature
- High risk of riverine and flash flooding is anticipated in parts of central to northern Kenya, a few regions in southern Somalia and cross-border regions of eastern Rwanda, Burundi, and north-western Tanzania where heavy to extremely heavy rainfall is forecast.
Rainfall anomalies
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, most parts of Kenya, southern Somalia, southern and south-western Ethiopia, central to southern South Sudan, and northern Tanzania.
- Drier than usual conditions expected over central to Southern Tanzania, and south-eastern parts of Kenya.
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures predicted in most parts of the region.
- Cooler than usual temperatures forecast over parts of eastern South Sudan into south-western Ethiopia, north-eastern Kenya and other isolated regions across the region.
Exceptional rainfall
- Extremely heavy rainfall expected in parts of central to northern Kenya, a few regions in southern Somalia and cross-border regions of eastern Rwanda, Burundi, and north-western Tanzania.
- Heavy to very heavy rainfall expected in Rwanda, Burundi, northern and western Tanzania, Kenya, Uganda, southern Ethiopia, south-eastern South Sudan, and southern Somalia.
Mean temperatures
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over most parts of Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda, Tanzania, Somalia, Djibouti, Eritrea, eastern and northern Kenya, and south-eastern and north-eastern Ethiopia.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) expected over parts of northwestern Sudan, northern to southern Ethiopia, central to western Kenya, Rwanda, Burundi, few regions in southwestern Uganda, southern Tanzania and northern Somalia.
Heat Stress
- No extreme heat stress expected during the forecast period. However, elevated levels of heat stress are likely in areas over eastern Kenya to southern Somalia, coastal regions of Tanzania, cross-border regions of northern South Sudan to south-eastern Sudan.
Total rainfall
- Heavy rainfall (greater than 200mm) expected in the eastern regions of Rwanda and Burundi, north-western Tanzania and western and central Kenya.
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected over most parts of Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, Kenya, southern Somalia, northern to western Tanzania, and southern South Sudan.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected in parts of central to northern South Sudan, coastal regions of Sudan, Eritrea, central and northern Somalia, parts of western and southern Ethiopia and southern Tanzania.
- Dry conditions expected over Sudan, most parts of Eritrea, Djibouti, northeastern to eastern Ethiopia and northern Somalia.
