21 - 28 March 2023
Rainfall
Temperature
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected in western Sudan, north-western South Sudan, northern Ethiopia, central to northern Somalia, and south-eastern Tanzania.
- Cooler than usual temperatures are expected over Lake Victoria Basin extending into central Uganda, southern South Sudan, parts of western and southern Ethiopia.
Rainfall anomalies
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over most parts of Ethiopia, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, Somalia, and isolated parts of southern South Sudan and Tanzania.
Exceptional rainfall
- Very heavy (top 5%) rainfall expected over southern to eastern parts of Ethiopia, isolated areas in northern and central Somalia, central to eastern parts of Kenya, eastern Rwanda, northern Burundi, and eastern Tanzania.
- Heavy (top 10%) rainfall expected over western parts of Rwanda, isolated areas in coastal Kenya, a few areas in southern Somalia and central Tanzania.
Mean temperatures
- Moderate to high temperatures (20 - 32 ℃) expected over Sudan, South Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, Somalia, northern and eastern Kenya, Uganda, and most parts of Tanzania.
- Mild conditions (less than 20℃) expected over central to northern Ethiopia, central to western Kenya, Rwanda, Burundi, and isolated areas of southern and northern Tanzania.
Total rainfall
- Heavy rainfall (greater than 200mm) expected over isolated parts of Tanzania, Kenya, and Ethiopia.
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected over Rwanda, Burundi, Tanzania, most parts of Uganda, southern to eastern Ethiopia, most parts of Kenya, and parts of southern, central, and northern Somalia.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected over isolated areas in central Ethiopia, central to southern South Sudan, north-eastern Uganda, parts of central and southern Somalia, and north-eastern Kenya.
- Dry conditions expected over Sudan, northern South Sudan, most parts of Eritrea, western Ethiopia, and Djibouti.
