22 - 29 September 2026
Rainfall
Temperature
Rainfall Anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over some areas in southern Sudan, northern Somalia and over central to western Ethiopia.
- Less than usual rainfall expected over western, central to south-eastern parts of Ethiopia, central to western Kenya, central Somalia and most parts of South Sudan, Uganda and Rwanda.
Rainfall Anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over some areas in southern Sudan, northern Somalia and over central to western Ethiopia.
- Less than usual rainfall expected over western, central to south-eastern parts of Ethiopia, central to western Kenya, central Somalia and most parts of South Sudan, Uganda and Rwanda.
Exceptional Rainfall
- Rainfall exceeding the 95th percentile expected over few areas in northern Somalia.
Exceptional Rainfall
- Rainfall exceeding the 95th percentile expected over few areas in northern Somalia.
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Cooler than usual temperatures expected over a few isolated regions across the GHA.
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Cooler than usual temperatures expected over a few isolated regions across the GHA.
Mean Temperature
- Elevated temperatures exceeding 32°C expected over central to northern parts of Sudan, isolated areas in western Eritrea and isolated areas in north-eastern parts of Ethiopia.
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32°C) expected over most parts of the region.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20°C) expected over central to western regions of Kenya, central to southern Tanzania and central to northern parts of Ethiopia and western regions of both Rwanda and Burundi.
Mean Temperature
- Elevated temperatures exceeding 32°C expected over central to northern parts of Sudan, isolated areas in western Eritrea and isolated areas in north-eastern parts of Ethiopia.
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32°C) expected over most parts of the region.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20°C) expected over central to western regions of Kenya, central to southern Tanzania and central to northern parts of Ethiopia and western regions of both Rwanda and Burundi.
Total Rainfall
- Moderate rainfall (50-200 mm) expected over western parts of Ethiopia, southwestern parts of Sudan and isolated areas over both western Uganda and northern Somalia.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected over most parts of Somalia, Ethiopia, central to western and coastal parts of Kenya, eastern and southern Tanzania, southern regions of Sudan, central to western parts of Uganda and most parts of South Sudan.
Total Rainfall
- Moderate rainfall (50-200 mm) expected over western parts of Ethiopia, southwestern parts of Sudan and isolated areas over both western Uganda and northern Somalia.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected over most parts of Somalia, Ethiopia, central to western and coastal parts of Kenya, eastern and southern Tanzania, southern regions of Sudan, central to western parts of Uganda and most parts of South Sudan.
Heat stress
- Elevated heat stress within the ‘Extreme Caution’ category expected over most parts of South Sudan, Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, Somalia, some parts of Eastern Kenya and northeastern regions of Ethiopia. Elevated heat stress within the ‘Danger’ category expected over parts of the Afar region in Ethiopia extending into parts of central Eritrea and isolated areas along the coastline of Eritrea.
