23 - 30 Nov 2021

Rainfall

Temperature

Temperature forecast

Temperature

  • Warmer than usual temperatures are expected in most parts of the region with anomalies above 2°C expected in most parts of Eritrea, eastern Ethiopia, Djibouti and northern Somalia.
  • Moderate temperatures between 20 - 32 ℃ are expected in southern Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda, Tanzania, much of Kenya and Somalia, Djibouti, and southern and eastern regions of Ethiopia.
  • Relatively cold conditions with temperatures less than 20℃ are expected in northern Sudan, central Ethiopia, Rwanda, Burundi and few regions in central to western Kenya, northern Somalia and south-western Uganda.
Heavy rainfall

Headline: Heavy rainfall is expected in parts of central to northern Kenya, western and northern Tanzania and southern Rwanda coinciding with regions of rainfall anomalies higher than 10mm. Temperature anomalies are forecast to be warmer than usual in most parts of the region.

Rainfall

  • Heavy to very heavy rainfall (top 10-5% on record) is predicted over parts of Tabora in Tanzania, parts of Machakos and border regions of Embu, Kitui and Tharaka-Nithi counties in Kenya and parts of the southern province in Rwanda. Positive rainfall anomalies up to 50 mm per week are expected over those areas.
  • Moderate rainfall between 50 - 100 mm is expected in much of western and northern Tanzania, parts of north-eastern, central and south-western Kenya, northern and southern Uganda, and eastern Rwanda.
  • Light rainfall of less than 30 mm is expected in southern regions of South Sudan, a few regions over southern Ethiopia, much of Somalia, Kenya, Uganda, and coastal and south-eastern Tanzania.
  • Dry conditions are expected in Sudan, northern South Sudan, Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, parts of northern Somalia, and north-western Kenya.
Rainfall forecast

Headline: Heavy rainfall is expected in parts of central to northern Kenya, western and northern Tanzania, and southern Rwanda coinciding with regions of rainfall anomalies higher than 10 mm. Temperature anomalies are forecast to be warmer than usual in most parts of the region.

Rainfall

  • Heavy to very heavy rainfall (top 10-5% on record) is predicted over parts of Tabora in Tanzania, parts of Machakos and border regions of Embu, Kitui and Tharaka-Nithi counties in Kenya and parts of the southern province in Rwanda. Positive rainfall anomalies up to 50 mm per week are expected over those areas.
  • Moderate rainfall between 50 - 100 mm is expected in much of western and northern Tanzania, parts of north-eastern, central and south-western Kenya, northern and southern Uganda, and eastern Rwanda.
  • Light rainfall of less than 30 mm is expected in southern regions of South Sudan, a few regions over southern Ethiopia, much of Somalia, Kenya, Uganda, and coastal and south-eastern Tanzania.
  • Dry conditions are expected in Sudan, northern South Sudan, Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, parts of northern Somalia, and north-western Kenya.