23 - 30 May 2023



Rainfall forecast (anomalies)

Rainfall anomalies

  • Wetter than usual conditions expected over southern Sudan, north-western South Sudan, central to northern and eastern Ethiopia, northern Somalia, and Eritrea.
  • Drier than usual conditions expected over most parts of Uganda, South Sudan, western Kenya, and a few regions of southern Ethiopia and southern Somalia.
Temperature forecast (Anomalies)

Temperature anomalies

  • Warmer than usual temperatures expected over western parts of the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA).
  • Cooler than usual temperatures expected in northern Somalia and parts of eastern Kenya.
Heavy rainfall

Exceptional rainfall

  • Extremely heavy rainfall (top 1%) expected over parts northern Somalia.
Temperature forecast

Mean temperatures

  • Hot temperatures (above 32 ℃) expected over Sudan, parts of central Eritrea, and Afar region in north-eastern Ethiopia.
  • Moderate to high temperatures (20 - 32℃) expected over parts of  eastern and western Sudan, South Sudan, much of Uganda, most parts of Tanzania, eastern and northern Kenya, Somalia, Djibouti, and eastern and north-western parts of Ethiopia.
  • Mild conditions (less than 20℃) expected over central to northern Ethiopia, central to western Kenya, Rwanda, Burundi, and a few regions in southern and northern Tanzania.
Rainfall forecast

Total rainfall

  • Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected over northern Somalia, central to western and eastern Ethiopia, south-western Sudan, and north-western South Sudan.
  • Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected over southern Sudan, eastern South Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, Uganda, northern and southern Ethiopia, southern Somalia, coastal and western Kenya, and coastal and southern Tanzania.
  • Dry conditions expected over central to northern Sudan, eastern and northern Kenya, Burundi, eastern Rwanda, and central to western Tanzania..