27 September - 04 October 2023



Rainfall forecast (anomalies)

Rainfall anomalies

  • Wetter than usual conditions expected over Somalia, Ethiopia, southern Sudan, north-western South Sudan, central to north-western parts of Uganda and parts of the Lake Victoria Basin areas in Uganda and Kenya.
  • Drier than usual conditions expected over parts of eastern South Sudan, isolated areas in Uganda, Kenya and Tanzania.
Temperature forecast (Anomalies)

Temperature anomalies

  • Warmer than usual temperatures predicted over most parts of the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA).
Heavy rainfall

Exceptional rainfall

  • Extremely heavy rainfall expected in northern Somalia, and isolated areas in Ethiopia.
  • Heavy to very heavy rainfall expected in northern to southern Somalia, southern Ethiopia, parts of north-western South Sudan, parts of southern Sudan and western Uganda.
Temperature forecast

Mean temperatures

  • Hot temperatures (above 32 ℃) expected over central to northern Sudan, coastal regions of Eritrea, Afar region of Ethiopia, parts of Djibouti and north-western coastal regions of Somalia.
  • Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over southern parts of Sudan, South Sudan, southern Ethiopia, Eritrea, Djibouti, Somalia, northern and eastern Kenya, and western and south-eastern Tanzania.
  • Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) expected over central to southern Ethiopia, western Kenya, central parts of Tanzania and a few regions over south-western Uganda and western Rwanda.
Rainfall forecast

Total rainfall

  • Heavy rainfall (above 200mm) expected over few places in northern Somalia, western Ethiopia, and north-western South Sudan.
  • Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected over most parts of Uganda, western Kenya, northern and western South Sudan, southern Sudan, most parts of Somalia and Ethiopia.
  • Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected in coastal Tanzania, Burundi, Rwanda, coastal and eastern Kenya, eastern South Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, and central Sudan.
  • Dry conditions expected over northern Sudan, western and southern Tanzania, and parts of northern and eastern Kenya.