29 October - 05 November 2024
Rainfall
Temperature
Exceptional rainfall
- Rainfall amounts exceeding the top 10% on record expected over parts of northern Somalia, south-eastern and isolated areas in western Ethiopia, and isolated areas in central Uganda.
Rainfall anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over coastal Sudan, most parts of South Sudan, most parts of Ethiopia, northern Somalia, central Uganda, and parts of eastern and western Tanzania.
- Less than usual rainfall expected over most parts of Kenya, central to southern Somalia, northern and central parts of Tanzania, Burundi, Rwanda, south-western Uganda and south-eastern parts of South Sudan.
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) region.
- Cooler than usual temperatures expected over central to northern parts of Sudan.
Mean temperatures
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over most parts of Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda, Tanzania, eastern Burundi, eastern Rwanda, northern and central to eastern Kenya, Somalia, Djibouti, Eritrea, and eastern and southern Ethiopia.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) expected over parts of northern to southern Ethiopia, central to western Kenya, western Rwanda, and north-western parts of Sudan.
Heat Stress
- Heat exhaustion is forecast over parts of Sudan, South Sudan, Eritrea, Afar region in Ethiopia, central to southern Somalia, north-western Kenya and south-eastern Tanzania.
Total rainfall
- Heavy rainfall (greater than 200mm) expected over isolated areas in parts of northern Somalia and central to western Ethiopia.
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected over western Burundi, western Rwanda, parts of western and eastern Tanzania, most parts of Uganda, western and central South Sudan, most parts of Ethiopia and northern Somalia.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected over coastal Sudan, parts of central to northern Ethiopia, western Eritrea, most parts of Somalia, central and southern Tanzania, eastern parts of both Rwanda and Burundi, coastal, central, and western Kenya, northern and south-eastern parts of South Sudan and north-eastern parts of Uganda.