Weekly Forecast
At ICPAC we use the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to produce our forecasts in a resolution of 10 x 10 Km. Our weekly forecasts are very popular and help stakeholders prepare for extreme weather, and mitigate risks associated with floods, drought or heavy rainfall.
11 - 18 November 2025
Rainfall
Temperature
Rainfall anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over central to southern regions of South Sudan, south-western Ethiopia, western Tanzania, and central to western Uganda.
- Less than usual rainfall expected over central to southern Kenya, part of central to southern Somalia, most parts of Tanzania, Rwanda, and parts of Burundi.
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the region.
- Cooler than usual temperatures expected over areas in central to north-western Sudan, south-western Ethiopia, and isolated areas in Kenya.
- Rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile expected over central Kenya, Rwanda, and isolated areas in Uganda and north-western Tanzania.
Flood
- There is a likelihood of Flooding incidences over the flood prone areas in most part of Rwanda, north-central Tanzania, and small pockets in south-western Ethiopia.
Mean temperatures
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over most parts of Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda, Tanzania, eastern and northern Kenya, Somalia, Djibouti, Eritrea, eastern Ethiopia and eastern parts of both Rwanda and Burundi.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) expected over north-western Sudan, central to northern Ethiopia, central to western Kenya, northern Somalia, southern Uganda, and parts of Burundi and Rwanda.
Heat Stress
- Elevated heat stress levels expected expected in parts of southern Somalia and coastal areas of Tanzania.
Total rainfall
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected in Rwanda, Burundi, western to north-western Tanzania, western to central Uganda, parts of central and western Kenya, southern South Sudan and south-western Ethiopia.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected in eastern to southern Tanzania, most parts of Kenya, northern and southern Somalia, much of south-western Ethiopia, and central to southern South Sudan.
Weekly Forecasts
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Temperature forecast (Anomalies)
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over northern Sudan, western regions of South Sudan, central to northern Ethiopia, western Kenya, and most parts of Uganda and Tanzania.
- Cooler than usual temperatures expected over regions …
Heat Stress
Heat Stress
- Elevated heat stress levels expected in northern Sudan, Afar region in Ethiopia, Djibouti, and coastal regions along the Red Sea.
Temperature forecast
Mean temperatures
- High temperatures (>32℃) expected in northern Sudan and regions within the Red Sea coastal regions.
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over Somalia, eastern Ethiopia, Eritrea, central to southern Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda, …
Heavy rainfall
- Rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile (the highest 10% on record) expected over southern Sudan, northern regions of South Sudan, western regions of Eritrea and northern Ethiopia.
Rainfall forecast
- Light rainfall expected over southern and northern regions of Somalia.
Floods update
- There is a likelihood of Flooding incidences over the flood prone areas in northern and north-eastern Ethiopia, central-eastern and south-western Sudan, central parts of South Sudan, and western Eritrea.