Weekly Forecast
At ICPAC we use the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to produce our forecasts in a resolution of 10 x 10 Km. Our weekly forecasts are very popular and help stakeholders prepare for extreme weather, and mitigate risks associated with floods, drought or heavy rainfall.
29 April - 06 May 2025
Rainfall
Temperature
Rainfall anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over most parts of South Sudan, western Ethiopia, eastern Kenya, central to southern Somalia, northern and southern Tanzania.
- Less than usual rainfall expected over parts of western Kenya, central Uganda, northern Somalia, and south-eastern Ethiopia.
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the Tanzania, Burundi, Rwanda, Uganda, Kenya, Somalia, Ethiopia, Eritrea, western South Sudan and central to southern parts of Sudan.
- Cooler than usual temperatures expected over parts of northern Sudan, and eastern South Sudan.
- Rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile (the highest 10% on record)expected over parts of southern Tanzania, southern and eastern Kenya, southern Somalia, and southern Ethiopia.
- There is a likelihood of isolated flash flood over the flood prone areas in southern Kenya, southern Tanzania, south-western Somalia and western Ethiopia.
Mean temperatures
- High temperatures (> 32℃) expected in parts of southern Sudan.
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over most parts Sudan, South Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, Somalia, Uganda, Kenya, and Tanzania.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) expected over most parts of Burundi, Rwanda, central to western Kenya, and central Ethiopia.
Heat Stress
- Elevated heat stress levels expected in parts of southern regions of Sudan and northern regions of South Sudan.
Total rainfall
- Heavy rainfall (> 200mm) expected in parts of southern Tanzania.
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected in most parts of South Sudan, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, southern and north-eastern Tanzania, southern and eastern Kenya, central to southern Somalia, and central to western Ethiopia.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected over parts of central Tanzania, central to north-western Kenya, eastern Ethiopia, north-western Somalia, and parts of southern Sudan.
Weekly Forecasts
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Temperature forecast
- Moderate temperatures (20-32 ℃) expected in most parts of the country.
- Mild temperatures (less than 20 ℃) expected over parts of northern Somalia.
Rainfall forecast
Total rainfall
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected over most parts of southern Kenya, central to western Tanzania, and most parts of Burundi.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected over most parts of Rwanda, northern Burundi, …
Rainfall forecast
- Light rainfall expected over a few isolated areas along the coastal regions of Somalia.
Temperature forecast (Anomalies)
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Cooler than usual temperatures expected over coastal parts of Kenya and some isolated areas.
Floods update
- The expected very heavy rainfall over a few cross-border areas of Kenya and Tanzania is likely to lead to isolated flood incidences.
- Communities in high-risk areas are advised to exercise caution during this period.
Heavy rainfall
Exceptional rainfall
- Rainfall amounts exceeding the top 10% on record expected over a few cross-border areas of Kenya and Tanzania.