Weekly Forecast
At ICPAC we use the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to produce our forecasts in a resolution of 10 x 10 Km. Our weekly forecasts are very popular and help stakeholders prepare for extreme weather, and mitigate risks associated with floods, drought or heavy rainfall.
17 - 24 June 2025
Rainfall
Temperature
Rainfall anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over central to western Kenya, much of Uganda, eastern South Sudan, western to south-western Ethiopia, and isolated areas in northern and southern Somalia, and south-western Sudan.
- Less than usual rainfall expected over southern Sudan, western Eritrea, central to northern Ethiopia, central to western South Sudan, and part of south-eastern Uganda.
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Cooler than normal temperatures expected over northern Sudan.
- Rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile (the highest 10% on record)expected over central to western Kenya, north-eastern Uganda, parts of eastern South Sudan, and western Ethiopia.
- There is a likelihood of Flooding incidences over the flood prone areas in central-western Kenya, and small pockets of eastern South Sudan and western Ethiopia.
Mean temperatures
- High temperatures (> 32℃) expected in parts of south-eastern Sudan, Afar region in Ethiopia, Djibouti, northern coastal Somalia, and coastal regions of Eritrea.
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over most parts South Sudan, Sudan, central to northern Uganda, western and eastern Tanzania, eastern and northern Kenya, south-eastern Ethiopia, and most parts of Somalia.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) expected over Rwanda, Burundi, southern Uganda, central to southern Tanzania, central to western Kenya, and central to western Ethiopia.
Heat Stress
- Elevated heat stress levels expected in parts of southeastern Sudan, Afar region in Ethiopia, Djibouti, coastal Eritrea and parts of north-western coast of Somalia.
Total rainfall
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected in western Ethiopia, South Sudan, southern areas of Sudan, much of Uganda, and western Kenya.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected over southern parts of Uganda, coastal and north-western Kenya, southern and northern Somalia, central to eastern Ethiopia, and central Sudan.
Weekly Forecasts
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Rainfall forecast (anomalies)
Rainfall anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected most parts of Tanzania, northern and western South Sudan, western Ethiopia, south-western Somalia and coastal regions of Kenya.
- Less than usual rainfall expected over parts of western Kenya, …
Temperature forecast
Mean temperatures
- High temperatures (> 32℃) expected over southern parts of Sudan.
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over most parts Sudan, South Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, Somalia, Ethiopia, Uganda, Kenya, and Tanzania.
- Mild temperature conditions …
Rainfall forecast
- Light to moderate rainfall expected over southern regions of Somalia.
Rainfall forecast (anomalies)
Rainfall anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over parts of northern, eastern and southern Tanzania, southern Kenya, southern Somalia, western regions of Rwanda and Burundi, most parts of South Sudan, southern Sudan, and western Ethiopia. …
Heavy rainfall
- Rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile over much of Rwanda, north-western Tanzania, southern Uganda, north-eastern Kenya, and north-central and south-western Ethiopia.
Temperature forecast
Mean temperatures
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over most parts of the Greater Horn of Africa.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) expected over parts of the Ethiopian Highlands, central to western Kenya, western …