Weekly Forecast
At ICPAC we use the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to produce our forecasts in a resolution of 10 x 10 Km. Our weekly forecasts are very popular and help stakeholders prepare for extreme weather, and mitigate risks associated with floods, drought or heavy rainfall.
14 - 21 July 2026
Rainfall
Temperature
Rainfall anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over central and southwestern parts of Sudan, western Ethiopia, northern Uganda, western Kenya and isolated areas in South Sudan.
- Less than usual rainfall expected over southern regions of Sudan, eastern South Sudan, western Eritrea, eastern Uganda, western regions of Kenya, and along the central to northern highlands of Ethiopia.
Exceptional rainfall
- Rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile expected over parts western to eastern Sudan, western to northern parts of Ethiopia, isolated areas in both northern Uganda and western South Sudan.
Floods update
- Flooding incidences expected over parts of Sudan, Ethiopia, with pocket areas in northern Uganda and western South Sudan.
- Communities in high-risk areas are advised to exercise caution during this period.
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Cooler than usual temperatures expected over a few isolated regions across the GHA.
Mean temperatures
- Elevated temperatures exceeding 32°C expected over Djibouti, central to eastern parts of Sudan, coastal parts of Eritrea, northern coastal regions of Somalia, and north-eastern parts of Ethiopia.
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) expected over Rwanda, Burundi, central to western regions of Kenya, central to southern Tanzania and central to northern parts of Ethiopia.
Heat Stress
- Elevated heat stress within the ‘Extreme Caution’ category expected over most parts of South Sudan, Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, central to northern Somalia and north-eastern regions of Ethiopia. Elevated heat stress within the ‘Danger’ category expected over parts of the Afar region in Ethiopia extending into parts of central Eritrea, isolated areas along the coastline of Eritrea and a few pockets over northern Sudan.
Total rainfall
- Moderate rainfall (50-200 mm) expected over parts of southern Sudan, most parts of South Sudan, northern parts of Uganda, western regions of Kenya, western Eritrea and western to northern parts of Ethiopia.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected over eastern and southern Tanzania, southern and coastal Kenya, central to southern Somalia, central regions of Sudan, and some parts of eastern Ethiopia.
Weekly Forecasts
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Temperature forecast
Mean temperatures
- Elevated temperatures exceeding 32℃ expected over most parts of South Sudan, southern to south-eastern regions of Sudan, western Eritrea, and Afar region of Ethiopia.
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over most parts …
Rainfall forecast (anomalies)
Rainfall anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over southern and part of western Tanzania, central areas of Burundi and isolated areas in Kenya and Ethiopia.
- Less than usual rainfall expected over most parts of South …
Rainfall forecast
Total rainfall
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected over parts of coastal Kenya, Rwanda, Burundi, and north-western, southern to eastern Tanzania.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected over most parts of central to northern Tanzania, South …
Rainfall forecast
- Light rainfall expected over central to southern and north-western regions of Somalia.
Temperature forecast
- Moderate temperatures (20-32 ℃) expected in most parts of the country.
Temperature forecast
Mean temperatures
- Elevated temperatures exceeding 32℃ expected over most parts of central to eastern South Sudan and south-eastern parts of Sudan.
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Mild temperature …