Weekly Forecast
At ICPAC we use the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to produce our forecasts in a resolution of 10 x 10 Km. Our weekly forecasts are very popular and help stakeholders prepare for extreme weather, and mitigate risks associated with floods, drought or heavy rainfall.
11 - 18 February 2026
Rainfall
Temperature
Rainfall anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over most parts of Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, and central to northern regions of Tanzania.
- Less than usual rainfall expected parts of western Tanzania.
Exceptional rainfall
- Rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile expected over parts of central to northern Tanzania.
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the GHA, with parts of Sudan, Eritrea, north-western Ethiopia, and northern and western South Sudan being at least 2 degrees C warmer than the average.
Mean temperatures
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over most parts of Tanzania, Kenya, Uganda, Somalia, South Sudan, Djibouti, Eritrea and central to southern regions of Sudan.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) expected over parts of north-western Sudan, central Ethiopia, central to western Kenya, northern Somalia, and western regions of Rwanda and Burundi.
Heat Stress
- Elevated heat stress in “Extreme Caution” category over eastern Tanzania, eastern South Sudan and eastern Kenya into southern Somalia.
Total rainfall
- Heavy rainfall (>200mm) expected over isolated areas of southern Tanzania.
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected over most parts of Burundi, Rwanda and Tanzania.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected over central to northern Uganda, southern South Sudan, south-western Ethiopia, south-western Kenya, and most parts of coastal regions of Somalia.
Weekly Forecasts
Filter by Product Type
Filter by Region
Filter by Year
Filter by Month
Showing 2333 results
Heat Stress
Heat Stress
- Cautionary heat stress levels are expected in regions of eastern South Sudan, eastern Tanzania, eastern Kenya, and southern Somalia.
Heavy rainfall
Exceptional rainfall
- Rainfall amounts exceeding the top 10% on record expected over parts of central Tanzania.
Floods update
- The expected very heavy rainfall over a few places in parts of central Tanzania is likely to lead to isolated flood incidences.
- Communities in high-risk areas are advised to exercise caution during this period.
Rainfall forecast
Total rainfall
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected over most parts of central to western Tanzania, Burundi, and a few parts of southern Rwanda and south-western Kenya.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected over parts of …
Rainfall forecast (anomalies)
Rainfall anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected parts of central Tanzania to south-western Kenya.
- Less than usual rainfall expected over southern and western regions of Tanzania.
Temperature forecast (Anomalies)
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Cooler than usual temperatures expected over parts of central Sudan and south-eastern Kenya.