Weekly Forecast

At ICPAC we use the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to produce our forecasts in a resolution of 10 x 10 Km. Our weekly forecasts are very popular and help stakeholders prepare for extreme weather, and mitigate risks associated with floods, drought or heavy rainfall.

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21 - 28 May 2024

Rainfall

Temperature

Heavy rainfall

Exceptional rainfall

  • Heavy rainfall (exceeding the top 10% on record) expected in parts of southern and western South Sudan and western Ethiopia.
Floods update

Floods Update

  • Heavy Rainfall is likely to lead to flooding in the flood-prone areas.
Rainfall forecast (anomalies)

Rainfall anomalies

  • More than usual rainfall expected over most parts of South Sudan, south-western Ethiopia, northern Uganda, south-eastern Sudan and parts of central to western Kenya.  
  • Less than usual rainfall expected in Somalia, southeastern Ethiopia, coastal Tanzania and northern and eastern Kenya.
Temperature forecast (Anomalies)

Temperature anomalies

  • Warmer than usual temperatures predicted over most parts of the GHA. 
  • Cooler than usual temperatures forecast over a few regions in north-eastern South Sudan, a few regions in western Ethiopia and other isolated regions over the GHA.
Temperature forecast

Mean temperatures

  • High temperatures (above 32℃) expected over most parts of Sudan, Djibouti, north-eastern Ethiopia, and parts of Eritrea and north-western Somalia. 
  • Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over most parts of South Sudan, Uganda, Somalia, Kenya and Tanzania. 
  • Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) expected Rwanda, Burundi, and parts of central to southern Tanzania, central to western Kenya and central to southern Ethiopia.  
Heat Stress

Heat Stress

  • Elevated levels of heat stress expected in most parts of Sudan, northern South Sudan, Eritrea, Afar region in Ethiopia and central to northern Somalia.  
Rainfall forecast

Total rainfall

  • Heavy rainfall (more than 200 mm) expected over a few regions in south-western Ethiopia and western South Sudan. 
  • Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected over most parts of South Sudan, western Ethiopia, most parts of Uganda and western Kenya. 
  • Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected in southern Sudan, coastal regions of Somalia, Rwanda, northern Tanzania and western Kenya.  
  • Dry conditions expected over central to northern Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, eastern Ethiopia, eastern and northern Kenya, western and coastal Tanzania, eastern Burundi and central to northern parts of Somalia.

Weekly Forecasts

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Heavy rainfall
Heavy rainfall

Exceptional rainfall

  • Heavy rainfall (exceeding the top 10% on record) expected in parts of southern and western South Sudan and western Ethiopia.
21 - 28 May 2024 Read More
Rainfall forecast (anomalies)
Rainfall forecast (anomalies)

Rainfall anomalies

  • More than usual rainfall expected over most parts of South Sudan, south-western Ethiopia, northern Uganda, south-eastern Sudan and parts of central to western Kenya.  
  • Less than usual rainfall expected in Somalia, southeastern …
21 - 28 May 2024 Read More
Temperature forecast
Temperature forecast
  • Moderate temperatures (20-32 ℃) expected in most parts of the country, with temperatures above 32 ℃ parts of the central and north-western regions.
21 - 28 May 2024 Read More
Rainfall forecast
Rainfall forecast
  • Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) to dry conditions expected in most parts of the country.
21 - 28 May 2024 Read More
Floods update
Floods update

Floods Update

  • Heavy Rainfall is likely to lead to flooding in the flood-prone areas.
21 - 28 May 2024 Read More
Temperature forecast (Anomalies)
Temperature forecast (Anomalies)

Temperature anomalies

  • Warmer than usual temperatures predicted over most parts of the GHA. 
  • Cooler than usual temperatures forecast over a few regions in north-eastern South Sudan, a few regions in western Ethiopia and other isolated …
21 - 28 May 2024 Read More