During the 69th Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF 69), ICPAC released the March-May (MAM) 2025 seasonal forecast, which projected a higher likelihood of warmer-than-normal conditions across most parts of the IGAD region. During the release of the seasonal forecast, it was emphasised that the region should follow up with forecast updates, especially on the sub-seasonal timescale when most climate hazards manifest.

Weekly forecasts generated throughout February indicated persistence of warmer than usual temperature anomalies across most parts of the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA), putting the region at a likelihood of extreme temperature hazards. Further, analysis of the observed temperatures in February indicated that most areas in South Sudan, Uganda, northern and western Kenya experienced persistence of extreme temperatures. The analysis of the average daily maximum temperatures from February 1 to 28 also indicates that much of South Sudan, parts of southeastern Sudan, northern Kenya, and southern Somalia experienced temperatures exceeding 38°C. With daily maximum temperatures hitting 40 degrees Celsius in parts of South Sudan and Kenya, recent observations indicate a growing risk of negative impacts on human well-being, livestock and socio-economic activities.

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