
Statement from the 69th Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF69)
The 69th Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF69) was held from 20 to 21 January 2025. The March-May 2025 seasonal forecast indicates a higher likelihood of below normal rainfall conditions over the eastern and western parts of the region. Below-average rainfall is expected in much of Somalia, eastern and northern Kenya, southern and northeastern Ethiopia, Djibouti, coastal Eritrea, western South Sudan, southern and western Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, and northwestern Tanzania. An enhanced probability of below normal conditions (55%) is indicated for the cross-border areas of Ethiopia-Kenya-Somalia, southern Eritrea, and parts of southwestern South Sudan.
Wetter-than-normal conditions are also expected over most parts of Tanzania, eastern Uganda, eastern South Sudan, and western Ethiopia. Additionally, there is a high chance (over 70%) that the seasonal rainfall will exceed 200 mm in southwestern Ethiopia, western Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, and Tanzania.