Weekly Forecast

15 - 22 September

Rainfall

Rainfall forecast (anomalies)

Heavy rainfall

Rainfall forecast

Temperature

Temperature forecast (Anomalies)

Temperature forecast

Heat Stress

Rainfall Anomalies

More than usual rainfall expected over central to southern regions of Sudan, northwestern South Sudan, eastern to northern parts of Ethiopia, northern Somalia, isolated parts of northern Uganda, isolated parts of western and coastal regions of Kenya, and isolated parts of western Eritrea.
Less than usual rainfall expected over central parts of Ethiopia, central region of Kenya and most parts of both South Sudan and Uganda.

Exceptional Rainfall

Rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile expected over isolated areas of the following parts; southern Sudan, western to western to eastern Ethiopia, western and central parts of Kenya and in northern coastal parts of Somalia.

Temperature Anomaly

Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the GHA.
Cooler than usual temperatures expected over a few isolated regions across the GHA.

Mean Temperature

Elevated temperatures exceeding 32°C expected over Djibouti, central to northern parts of Sudan, coastal parts of Eritrea, northern coastal regions of Somalia, and north-eastern parts of Ethiopia.
Moderate to high temperatures (20-32°C) expected over most parts of the region.
Mild temperature conditions (less than 20°C) expected over central to western regions of Kenya, central to southern Tanzania and central to northern parts of Ethiopia and western regions of both Rwanda and Burundi.

Total Rainfall

Heavy rainfall (greater than 200 mm) expected over isolated parts of central to western Ethiopia and isolated areas of central and western regions of Kenya.
Moderate rainfall (50-200 mm) expected over southwestern parts of Sudan, parts of western and eastern South Sudan, isolated areas in both northern and southern parts of Somalia, parts of central to southern Uganda, and western to northern parts of Ethiopia.
Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected over most parts of Somalia, central to western regions and coastal parts of Kenya, eastern and southern Tanzania, central regions of Sudan, eastern parts of South Sudan, and some parts of eastern to southern Ethiopia.

Heat Stress

Elevated heat stress within the ‘Extreme Caution’ category expected over most parts of South Sudan, Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, Somalia, some parts of Eastern Kenya and north-eastern regions of Ethiopia. Elevated heat stress within the ‘Danger’ category expected over parts of the Afar region in Ethiopia extending into parts of central Eritrea and isolated areas along the coastline of Eritrea.