Weekly Forecast
At ICPAC we use the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to produce our forecasts in a resolution of 10 x 10 Km. Our weekly forecasts are very popular and help stakeholders prepare for extreme weather, and mitigate risks associated with floods, drought or heavy rainfall.
28 April - 05 May 2026
Rainfall
Temperature
Rainfall anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected most parts of Rwanda, Burundi, northern South Sudan into southern regions of Sudan and western Ethiopia, central to southern Kenya into northern Tanzania.
- Less than usual rainfall expected over most parts of Somalia, Uganda, western Kenya, southern Ethiopia and central to southern South Sudan.
Exceptional rainfall
- Rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile expected over most parts of Rwanda, parts of central Kenya and south-western Ethiopia.
Floods Update
- Most parts of Rwanda, parts of central Kenya and south-western Ethiopia are likely to experience flooding incidences in the coming week. During this period, communities in high-risk areas are encouraged to be cautious.
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Cooler than usual temperatures expected over parts of central to northern Sudan, northern parts of South Sudan, western parts of Ethiopia and other isolated regions across the GHA.
Mean temperatures
- Elevated temperatures exceeding 32℃ expected over parts of southern Sudan and Afar region in Ethiopia.
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) expected most of the highlands across the GHA.
Heat Stress
- Elevated heat stress within the ‘extreme caution’ category expected over most parts of South Sudan, Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, eastern and northern Kenya, southern to central Somalia and Afar region in Ethiopia.
Total rainfall
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected over Rwanda, Burundi, most parts of Uganda, central to western Kenya, northern and eastern Tanzania, western Ethiopia and northern and western regions of South Sudan.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected over most parts of Tanzania, eastern and northern Kenya, southern Somalia, southern and central Ethiopia, north-western Eritrea and southern parts of Sudan.
Weekly Forecasts
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Temperature forecast (Anomalies)
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Cooler than usual temperatures expected over parts of central to northern Sudan, northern parts of South Sudan, western parts of Ethiopia and …
Rainfall forecast
- Light rainfall expected over southern to central regions of Somalia.
Rainfall forecast (anomalies)
Rainfall anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected most parts of Rwanda, Burundi, northern South Sudan into southern regions of Sudan and western Ethiopia, central to southern Kenya into northern Tanzania.
- Less than usual rainfall expected …
Heavy rainfall
Exceptional rainfall
- Rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile expected over most parts of Rwanda, parts of central Kenya and south-western Ethiopia.
Heat Stress
- Elevated heat stress within the ‘extreme caution’ category expected over most parts of South Sudan, Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, eastern and northern Kenya, southern to central Somalia and Afar region in Ethiopia.
Rainfall forecast
Total rainfall
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected over Rwanda, Burundi, most parts of Uganda, central to western Kenya, northern and eastern Tanzania, western Ethiopia and northern and western regions of South Sudan.
- Light rainfall (less than …