Weekly Forecast
At ICPAC we use the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to produce our forecasts in a resolution of 10 x 10 Km. Our weekly forecasts are very popular and help stakeholders prepare for extreme weather, and mitigate risks associated with floods, drought or heavy rainfall.
11 - 18 March 2026
Rainfall
Temperature
Rainfall anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over most parts of eastern Tanzania, central Uganda, south-western parts of Kenya and Ethiopia, and southern South Sudan.
- Less than usual rainfall expected over parts of western Tanzania, central to eastern Rwanda, central to western Burundi and eastern Kenya.
Exceptional rainfall
- Rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile expected over parts of northern and southern Tanzania.
- There is a likelihood of flooding incidences over the flood prone areas over south-eastern and north-central Tanzania.
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Cooler than usual temperatures expected over the highland regions across the GHA.
Mean temperatures
- High temperatures (above 32℃) expected over central to eastern parts of South Sudan.
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) expected over parts of the Ethiopian highlands, central to western Kenya and a few parts of western Rwanda and Burundi.
Heat Stress
- Elevated heat stress in the Extreme Caution category, bordering Danger, is expected over central to northern regions of South Sudan, eastern areas of Tanzania, eastern Kenya, and south-western parts of Somalia.
Total rainfall
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected over most parts of Rwanda, Burundi, and Tanzania, and a few places in south-western Kenya, southern Uganda and south-western Ethiopia.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected over most parts of southern South Sudan, central to northern Uganda, central to southern Ethiopia, southern Kenya and coastal regions of Somalia.
Weekly Forecasts
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Heat Stress
- Elevated heat stress in the Extreme Caution category, bordering Danger, is expected over central to northern regions of South Sudan, eastern areas of Tanzania, eastern Kenya, and south-western parts of Somalia.
Rainfall forecast
- Dry conditions expected in most parts of Somalia, with light rainfall along the coastal regions.
Temperature forecast (Anomalies)
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the GHA.
- Cooler than usual temperatures expected over the highland regions across the GHA.
Heavy rainfall
Exceptional rainfall
- Rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile expected over parts of northern and southern Tanzania.
Rainfall forecast (anomalies)
Rainfall anomalies
- More than usual rainfall expected over most parts of eastern Tanzania, central Uganda, south-western parts of Kenya and Ethiopia, and southern South Sudan.
- Less than usual rainfall expected over parts of western Tanzania, …
Rainfall forecast
Total rainfall
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected over most parts of Rwanda, Burundi, and Tanzania, and a few places in south-western Kenya, southern Uganda and south-western Ethiopia.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected over most …