Hazard modeling, impact estimation, climate storylines for drought and flood disasters in Eastern Africa

Hazard modeling, impact estimation, climate storylines for drought and flood disasters in Eastern Africa

The Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) is spearheading a critical initiative to model hazards, estimate impacts, and develop climate storylines for an event catalog on drought and flood disasters in Eastern Africa.

In collaboration with NORCAP, this project leverages ensemble prediction systems to create counterfactual, physically consistent narratives of real events, offering a new lens through which to view disaster risk and preparedness. By generating composite datasets, this initiative aims to provide actionable insights and enhance impact-based forecasting, anticipatory action, and loss-damage assessment across the region.

Impact at scale

With CRAF'd support, ICPAC's project is poised to enhance disaster risk management in Eastern Africa by integrating advanced hazard modeling, impact estimation, and climate storylines into the East Africa Hazard Watch Portal. This approach aims to fill the critical data gaps for localized, actionable information.

It seeks to elevate disaster risk reduction practices by offering a detailed understanding of potential impacts and facilitating the evaluation of alternative scenarios for risk assessment and decision-making. The project underscores a significant leap towards informed, strategic actions responding to climate change, conflict, and displacement challenges, thereby contributing to a more resilient and prepared region.

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Our Areas of Work


Event-based climate storylines to impart comprehensive risk knowledge and awareness, employing ensemble prediction systems and hazard modeling.


The application of storylines in impact-based forecasting utilizes ensemble prediction systems to inform disaster risk management and anticipatory action strategies.


Ecosystem partners with risk data, expertise, and capacity building for disaster preparedness and anticipatory action across East Africa.

Project Materials