E4DRR

Hazard modeling, impact estimation, climate storylines for drought and flood disasters in Eastern Africa

Hazard modeling, impact estimation, climate storylines for drought and flood disasters in Eastern Africa

The Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) is spearheading a critical initiative to model hazards, estimate impacts, and develop climate storylines for an event catalog on drought and flood disasters in Eastern Africa.

In collaboration with NORCAP, this project leverages ensemble prediction systems to create counterfactual, physically consistent narratives of real events, offering a new lens through which to view disaster risk and preparedness. By generating composite datasets, this initiative aims to provide actionable insights and enhance impact-based forecasting, anticipatory action, and loss-damage assessment across the region.

Impact at scale

With CRAF'd support, ICPAC's project is poised to enhance disaster risk management in Eastern Africa by integrating advanced hazard modeling, impact estimation, and climate storylines into the East Africa Hazard Watch Portal. This approach aims to fill the critical data gaps for localized, actionable information.

It seeks to elevate disaster risk reduction practices by offering a detailed understanding of potential impacts and facilitating the evaluation of alternative scenarios for risk assessment and decision-making. The project underscores a significant leap towards informed, strategic actions responding to climate change, conflict, and displacement challenges, thereby contributing to a more resilient and prepared region.

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Our Areas of Work

Develop

Event-based climate storylines to impart comprehensive risk knowledge and awareness, employing ensemble prediction systems and hazard modeling.

Explore

The application of storylines in impact-based forecasting utilizes ensemble prediction systems to inform disaster risk management and anticipatory action strategies.

Empower

Ecosystem partners with risk data, expertise, and capacity building for disaster preparedness and anticipatory action across East Africa.

Project Materials

Latest Updates

Summary for Decision Makers, October to December 2024 Season
Report
Summary for Decision Makers, October to December 2024 Season

Download our latest Summary for Decision Makers with impacts and advisories for the following secto…

Technical Statement from the 68th Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF68)
Report
Technical Statement from the 68th Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF68)

The 68th Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF68) was held from 19 to 20 August 2024…

Technical Statement from the 67th Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF67)
Report
Technical Statement from the 67th Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF67)

The IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) released the June to September 2024 sea…

Technical Report on the Ongoing Flood Impact in the IGAD Region
Report
Technical Report on the Ongoing Flood Impact in the IGAD Region

The IGAD region is grappling with an unprecedented challenge of a climate emergency within the memb…