Our seasonal forecasts
Our seasonal forecasts help Eastern Africa prepare for the season and mitigate the effects of climate extremes.
June - September
Rainfall
Temperature
- Longest dry-spell lengths after onset expected over western Kenya, eastern Uganda, southern Ethiopia, northern Sudan.
- Much of the region is likely to experience first dry-spell length ranging from 4 to 8 days
- Longer wet-spell lengths after seasonal onset are expected over parts of northwestern Ethiopia, while shorter wet-spell lengths are anticipated over northeastern Ethiopia and Sudan
- The onset of rainfall shows a progression from south to north following the movement of the ITCZ.
- Enhanced probabilities of a late onset are indicated across much of the region. However, parts of southwestern, north-central Ethiopia, and parts of Sudan show likelihood of an early to near-normal onset
- Significantly higher likelihood for above-normal temperatures are indicated across the vast majority of the Greater Horn of Africa region.
- The highest probabilities of above-normal temperatures are concentrated over northern Sudan, most parts of South Sudan and Ethiopia
- Wettern than normal conditions indicated over parts of coastal Somalia and Kenya, northern Sudan, southern Ethiopia, and northern Somalia while near-normal conditions are expected over most of central Sudan.
- Enhanced likelihood Below-normal rainfall across much of the northern GHA, including South Sudan, Ethiopia, parts of Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, Uganda, and western Kenya.
Seasonal forecasts
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Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over the southern parts of the country.
- Drier than usual conditions expected over localized areas over the north western parts of the country.
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over the whole country.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions expected over the whole country.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions expected over the whole country.
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over most parts of the northern sectors of the region, specifically in much of Sudan, South Sudan, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Djibouti, Somalia, Uganda, and western and coastal Kenya.
- Drier than usual …
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual temperatures indicated over the whole region.
- The highest probabilities are indicated over parts of Sudan, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Somalia, eastern Kenya and coastal Tanzania.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected all over the region with highest probabilities over Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, western South Sudan, south-western Ethiopia, much of Kenya, and eastern Tanzania.
- Usual temperatures likely to be recorded over central …
Rainfall forecast
- Drier than usual conditions predicted over central to eastern Sudan, central Ethiopia, parts of northern and southern South Sudan, eastern Uganda, and parts of western Kenya.
- Usual conditions expected over much of Sudan, central South …
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than normal conditions expected all over the country.
Rainfall forecast
- Drier than normal conditions expected over north-western, northern and southern areas of the country.
- Average conditions expected over isolated areas in north-western and south-eastern parts of the country.
- Wetter than average conditions expected over isolated …
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over northern and southern parts of the country bordering Ethiopia.
- Average conditions expected over central and southern coastal areas of the country.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than normal conditions expected all over the country with highest probabilities over the western parts.
Rainfall forecast
- Drier than normal conditions expected over south-eastern parts of Ethiopia and central Somalia.
- Normal conditions expected over parts of northern Sudan, Eritrea, western South Sudan, northern and southern Somalia, southern Kenya, southern Uganda, isolated parts …
