Our seasonal forecasts
Our seasonal forecasts help Eastern Africa prepare for the season and mitigate the effects of climate extremes.
June - September
Rainfall
Temperature
- Longest dry-spell lengths after onset expected over western Kenya, eastern Uganda, southern Ethiopia, northern Sudan.
- Much of the region is likely to experience first dry-spell length ranging from 4 to 8 days
- Longer wet-spell lengths after seasonal onset are expected over parts of northwestern Ethiopia, while shorter wet-spell lengths are anticipated over northeastern Ethiopia and Sudan
- The onset of rainfall shows a progression from south to north following the movement of the ITCZ.
- Enhanced probabilities of a late onset are indicated across much of the region. However, parts of southwestern, north-central Ethiopia, and parts of Sudan show likelihood of an early to near-normal onset
- Significantly higher likelihood for above-normal temperatures are indicated across the vast majority of the Greater Horn of Africa region.
- The highest probabilities of above-normal temperatures are concentrated over northern Sudan, most parts of South Sudan and Ethiopia
- Wettern than normal conditions indicated over parts of coastal Somalia and Kenya, northern Sudan, southern Ethiopia, and northern Somalia while near-normal conditions are expected over most of central Sudan.
- Enhanced likelihood Below-normal rainfall across much of the northern GHA, including South Sudan, Ethiopia, parts of Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, Uganda, and western Kenya.
Seasonal forecasts
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Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions expected over the whole country.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions expected over central to north-eastern and few areas in north-western parts of the country.
- Normal conditions expected over southern and parts of north-western regions of the country.
Rainfall forecast
- Drier than usual conditions expected over the central and southern parts of the country.
Rainfall forecast
- Drier than usual conditions expected over most parts of the region including southern Ethiopia, most parts of Uganda, Kenya, central to southern Somalia, Rwanda, Burundi and Tanzania.
- Normal to wetter than usual conditions expected over …
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions expected over central to north-eastern and few areas in north-western parts of the country.
- Normal conditions expected over southern and parts of north-western regions of the country.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions are expected over most parts of the region with the highest probabilities indicated over the eastern areas.
- Normal temperatures likely to be recorded over south-western parts of Sudan, western and southern …
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions expected over most parts of the region.
- Normal to cooler than normal conditions expected over parts of western Kenya, north-eastern Uganda, south-eastern South Sudan, north-eastern and south-western Ethiopia, Djibouti, eastern Sudan …
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over the eastern and isolated areas in western and north-western parts of the country.
- Drier than usual conditions expected over western parts of the country.
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over Rwanda, Uganda, western kenya, southern South sudan, most parts of Ethiopia, and northern Somalia.
- Drier than usual conditions expected over parts of South Sudan, north-western Ethiopia, and Sudan.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions expected over the whole country.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions expected over most parts of the country.
- Normal to cooler than normal conditions expected over southeastern parts of the country.
Rainfall forecast
- Drier than usual conditions expected over the whole country.
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over central to northern Ethiopia, most parts of South Sudan, Sudan, Uganda, Rwanda, and part of western Kenya.
- Drier than usual conditions expected over eastern parts of the region, western …
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over most parts of the country.
- Drier than usual conditions expected over parts of north-western and southern areas of the country.
Rainfall forecast
- Drier than usual conditions expected over most parts of the country with pockets of wetter than usual conditions over northern and north-western areas.