Our seasonal forecasts
Our seasonal forecasts help Eastern Africa prepare for the season and mitigate the effects of climate extremes.
October - December 2026
Rainfall
Temperature
- Southern Ethiopia, Somalia and cross border areas of Kenya, Uganda, and South Sudan are expected to experience maximum dry days of 8 to 10 days.
- Long wet spells expected over parts of Rwanda, Burundi, and Lake Victoria Regions in Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda.
- Onset expected to start in September and progress southwards following the southward progression of the rain band
- A delayed onset is expected in the western parts of the region, while early onset is expected in the eastern and southern parts
- Higest probability of seasonal rainfall exceeding 400 mm indicated over southern Somalia, southern Kenya, south-eastern Uganda, Burundi and north-western Tanzania
- Above normal temperatures are expected across most of the Greater Horn of Africa, with particularly high probabilities in Somalia, Ethiopia and coastal regions.
- Increased likelihood of wetter-than-normal conditions are predicted over most parts of the region with the highest probabilities over north-eastern Kenya, central to southern Somalia and south eastern Ethiopia
- The rest of the region indicates dominant probabilities of 55-85% of Above –normal rainfall
Seasonal forecasts
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Temperature forecast
- Warmer than normal conditions are expected over most parts of the region.
- Normal to cooler than normal temperature conditions likely to be recorded over parts of central Kenya and Ethiopia, northern Eritrea and coastal areas …
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than normal conditions expected over the whole country.
Rainfall forecast
- Normal to wetter than normal conditions expected over parts of Burundi, and western to southern areas of Tanzania.
- Drier than normal conditions expected over central to southern Kenya, southern Uganda, eastern and western Rwanda, …
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than normusual conditions expected over the whole country.
Temperature forecast
- Normal to cooler than normal conditions expected over some places in the northern regions of the country.
- Warmer than usual conditions expected over the rest of the country.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions expected over most parts of the country.
- Normal temperatures likely to be recorded over south-eastern parts of the country.
Rainfall forecast
- Drier than usual conditions expected over most parts of the country.
Rainfall forecast
- Drier than usual conditions expected over eastern Kenya, Somalia, Djibouti, northern-coastal and part of north-western Tanzania, south-eastern Ethiopia, and north-western South Sudan.
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over western Kenya, part of north-western Tanzania, Rwanda, …
Temperature forecast
- Normal to cooler than normal conditions expected over Sudan, western Eritrea, northern Ethiopia, parts of northern Somalia, central to western Kenya, north-eastern Uganda, south-eastern South Sudan and part of southern Tanzania.
- Warmer than usual conditions …
Rainfall forecast
- Drier than usual conditions expected over north-western parts of the country.
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over the rest of the country.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions are expected over most parts of the country except over north-western parts where cooler than normal conditions are expected.
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over most parts of the northern sector of the region, western Kenya, Uganda and Rwanda.
- Drier than usual conditions expected over part of north-western South Sudan, south-eastern Ethiopia, central to …
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than average conditions are expected over northern and southern Sudan, eastern and western South Sudan, central to southern Ethiopia, Somalia, southern and north-eastern Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi and Tanzania.
- Normal to cooler than normal …
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions expected over most parts of the country.
- Normal conditions are expected over parts of the central, north-eastern and south-eastern parts of the country.
Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over the northern parts of the country.
- Drier than usual conditions expected over part of northern and central to southern areas of the country