Our seasonal forecasts
Our seasonal forecasts help Eastern Africa prepare for the season and mitigate the effects of climate extremes.
October - December 2026
Rainfall
Temperature
- Southern Ethiopia, Somalia and cross border areas of Kenya, Uganda, and South Sudan are expected to experience maximum dry days of 8 to 10 days.
- Long wet spells expected over parts of Rwanda, Burundi, and Lake Victoria Regions in Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda.
- Onset expected to start in September and progress southwards following the southward progression of the rain band
- A delayed onset is expected in the western parts of the region, while early onset is expected in the eastern and southern parts
- Higest probability of seasonal rainfall exceeding 400 mm indicated over southern Somalia, southern Kenya, south-eastern Uganda, Burundi and north-western Tanzania
- Above normal temperatures are expected across most of the Greater Horn of Africa, with particularly high probabilities in Somalia, Ethiopia and coastal regions.
- Increased likelihood of wetter-than-normal conditions are predicted over most parts of the region with the highest probabilities over north-eastern Kenya, central to southern Somalia and south eastern Ethiopia
- The rest of the region indicates dominant probabilities of 55-85% of Above –normal rainfall
Seasonal forecasts
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Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over most parts of the country.
- Drier than usual conditions are expected over north-western part of the country.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions expected over most parts of the country.
- Normal conditions expected over north-western parts of the country.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions expected over the whole country.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions expected over most parts of the region with the highest probabilities indicated over the eastern areas.
- Normal temperatures likely to be recorded over south-western parts of Sudan, north-western South Sudan, and …
Rainfall forecast
- Drier than usual conditions expected over most parts of Kenya, southern Uganda, Rwanda, and north-western Tanzania.
- Normal to wetter than usual conditions expected over north-western Kenya and most parts of Tanzania.
Rainfall forecast
- Drier than usual conditions expected over the central and southern parts of the country.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions expected over central to north-eastern and few areas in north-western parts of the country.
- Normal conditions expected over southern and parts of north-western regions of the country.
Rainfall forecast
- Drier than usual conditions expected over most parts of the region including southern Ethiopia, most parts of Uganda, Kenya, central to southern Somalia, Rwanda, Burundi and Tanzania.
- Normal to wetter than usual conditions expected over …
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions are expected over most parts of the region with the highest probabilities indicated over the eastern areas.
- Normal temperatures likely to be recorded over south-western parts of Sudan, western and southern …
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions expected over central to north-eastern and few areas in north-western parts of the country.
- Normal conditions expected over southern and parts of north-western regions of the country.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions expected over the whole country.
Rainfall forecast
- Drier than usual conditions expected over the whole country.
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over the eastern and isolated areas in western and north-western parts of the country.
- Drier than usual conditions expected over western parts of the country.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions expected over most parts of the region.
- Normal to cooler than normal conditions expected over parts of western Kenya, north-eastern Uganda, south-eastern South Sudan, north-eastern and south-western Ethiopia, Djibouti, eastern Sudan …
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over Rwanda, Uganda, western kenya, southern South sudan, most parts of Ethiopia, and northern Somalia.
- Drier than usual conditions expected over parts of South Sudan, north-western Ethiopia, and Sudan.