Our seasonal forecasts
Our seasonal forecasts help Eastern Africa prepare for the season and mitigate the effects of climate extremes.
June - September
Rainfall
Temperature
- Longest dry-spell lengths after onset expected over western Kenya, eastern Uganda, southern Ethiopia, northern Sudan.
- Much of the region is likely to experience first dry-spell length ranging from 4 to 8 days
- Longer wet-spell lengths after seasonal onset are expected over parts of northwestern Ethiopia, while shorter wet-spell lengths are anticipated over northeastern Ethiopia and Sudan
- The onset of rainfall shows a progression from south to north following the movement of the ITCZ.
- Enhanced probabilities of a late onset are indicated across much of the region. However, parts of southwestern, north-central Ethiopia, and parts of Sudan show likelihood of an early to near-normal onset
- Significantly higher likelihood for above-normal temperatures are indicated across the vast majority of the Greater Horn of Africa region.
- The highest probabilities of above-normal temperatures are concentrated over northern Sudan, most parts of South Sudan and Ethiopia
- Wettern than normal conditions indicated over parts of coastal Somalia and Kenya, northern Sudan, southern Ethiopia, and northern Somalia while near-normal conditions are expected over most of central Sudan.
- Enhanced likelihood Below-normal rainfall across much of the northern GHA, including South Sudan, Ethiopia, parts of Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, Uganda, and western Kenya.
Seasonal forecasts
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Temperature forecast
- Average temperatures expected over western areas of the country.
- Cooler than usual conditions expected over most parts of the country.
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over southern Sudan, parts of Ethiopia, much of South Sudan, Uganda, and parts of western Kenya.
- Drier than usual conditions expected over much of Kenya, south-eastern Ethiopia, Somalia, north-western South …
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over eastern half of the country.
- Drier than usual conditions expected over western parts of the country.
Rainfall forecast
- Drier than usual conditions expected all over the country.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions expected over northern areas of Sudan, central to south-eastern Ethiopia, Somalia, Kenya, southern Uganda, and much of Tanzania.
- Average temperatures expected over areas in western South Sudan, central Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, …
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions expected all over the country.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than normal conditions expected over northern parts of Sudan, southern Ethiopia, much of Somalia, Kenya, southern Uganda, and much of Tanzania.
- Average temperatures are likely to be recorded over southern areas of South Sudan, …
Temperature forecast
- Average temperature conditions expected over the southern parts of the country.
- Cooler than normal conditions expected over the northern and south-eastern areas of the country.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than normal conditions expected over most parts of the country.
- Cooler than normal to average conditions expected over coastal and north-western parts of the country.
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than normal conditions expected over Sudan, South Sudan, north-western Eritrea, Djibouti, much of Ethiopia, Uganda, western Kenya, and eastern Rwanda.
- Normal conditions expected over north-western South Sudan, north-western Kenya, and north-eastern Somalia.
- Drier than …
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than normal conditions expected over most parts of the country except part of north-western where average rainfall is expected.
Rainfall forecast
- Drier than normal conditions expected over most parts of the country.
- Normal to above normal rainfall conditions expected over north-eastern and north-western parts of the country.
Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
- Wetter than usual conditions likely over north-western parts of the country.
- Usual conditions likely over the rest of the country.
Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
- Wetter than usual conditions are expected over southern areas of Sudan, north-eastern South Sudan, and north-western and eastern Ethiopia.
- Usual conditions are expected over much of South Sudan, western and northern Ethiopia, northern Somalia, western …
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual temperatures are expected over the whole country.