Our seasonal forecasts
Our seasonal forecasts help Eastern Africa prepare for the season and mitigate the effects of climate extremes.
June - September
Rainfall
Temperature
- Longest dry-spell lengths after onset expected over western Kenya, eastern Uganda, southern Ethiopia, northern Sudan.
- Much of the region is likely to experience first dry-spell length ranging from 4 to 8 days
- Longer wet-spell lengths after seasonal onset are expected over parts of northwestern Ethiopia, while shorter wet-spell lengths are anticipated over northeastern Ethiopia and Sudan
- The onset of rainfall shows a progression from south to north following the movement of the ITCZ.
- Enhanced probabilities of a late onset are indicated across much of the region. However, parts of southwestern, north-central Ethiopia, and parts of Sudan show likelihood of an early to near-normal onset
- Significantly higher likelihood for above-normal temperatures are indicated across the vast majority of the Greater Horn of Africa region.
- The highest probabilities of above-normal temperatures are concentrated over northern Sudan, most parts of South Sudan and Ethiopia
- Wettern than normal conditions indicated over parts of coastal Somalia and Kenya, northern Sudan, southern Ethiopia, and northern Somalia while near-normal conditions are expected over most of central Sudan.
- Enhanced likelihood Below-normal rainfall across much of the northern GHA, including South Sudan, Ethiopia, parts of Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, Uganda, and western Kenya.
Seasonal forecasts
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Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual are conditions likely over most parts of the country.
- Usual conditions are expected over the central part of the country.
Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
- Usual conditions are expected over the northern and part of central areas of the country.
- Drier than usual conditions are expected over the southern parts of the country.
Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
- Wetter than usual conditions likely over north-western parts of the country.
- Usual conditions likely over the rest of the country.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions are expected over the whole country.
Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
- Wetter than usual conditions are expected over western Kenya, Uganda, South Sudan, much of
Ethiopia, Djibouti, Eritrea, and Sudan. - Usual conditions are expected over few areas in north-eastern South Sudan, western Ethiopia, and coastal Kenya. …
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions are expected over much of the country.
- Usual conditions are expected over central and northern parts of the country.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions are expected over much of Tanzania, Kenya, eastern Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, southern and north-eastern Somalia, much of Ethiopia, Djibouti, north-western South Sudan, and northern Sudan.
- Usual conditions are expected over western …
Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
- Wetter than usual conditions are expected over most parts of the country.
- Usual conditions are expected over areas in north-western parts of the country.
Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
- Wetter than usual conditions are likely over part of the northern areas of the country.
- Usual conditions are expected over northern and central areas of the country.
- Drier than usual conditions are expected over the …
Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
- Drier than usual conditions are expected over southwestern South Sudan, much of southeastern Ethiopia, much of Kenya, Tanzania, Rwanda, Burundi, Somalia, western parts of Eritrea, and coastal Sudan. Stakeholders are advised to take the necessary …
Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
- Average rainfall conditions likely to be recorded over small locations in the central parts of the country
- Drier than average rainfall conditions likely to be recorded over the rest of the country
Temperature forecast
- Normal temperature conditions likely to be experienced over south eastern parts of the country
- Warmer than usual temperatures likely to be recorded over the rest of the country
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual temperatures likely to be recorded all over the country
Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
- Wetter than average rainfall conditions likely to be recorded over much of eastern part of the country
- Average conditions likely to be recorded over southern, central, and northern parts extending to north western parts of …
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than average conditions are expected over northern and southern Sudan, South Sudan, central to southern Ethiopia, Somalia, Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi and Tanzania.
- Normal to cooler than normal temperature conditions likely to be recorded …