Our seasonal forecasts
Our seasonal forecasts help Eastern Africa prepare for the season and mitigate the effects of climate extremes.
October - December 2026
Rainfall
Temperature
- Southern Ethiopia, Somalia and cross border areas of Kenya, Uganda, and South Sudan are expected to experience maximum dry days of 8 to 10 days.
- Long wet spells expected over parts of Rwanda, Burundi, and Lake Victoria Regions in Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda.
- Onset expected to start in September and progress southwards following the southward progression of the rain band
- A delayed onset is expected in the western parts of the region, while early onset is expected in the eastern and southern parts
- Higest probability of seasonal rainfall exceeding 400 mm indicated over southern Somalia, southern Kenya, south-eastern Uganda, Burundi and north-western Tanzania
- Above normal temperatures are expected across most of the Greater Horn of Africa, with particularly high probabilities in Somalia, Ethiopia and coastal regions.
- Increased likelihood of wetter-than-normal conditions are predicted over most parts of the region with the highest probabilities over north-eastern Kenya, central to southern Somalia and south eastern Ethiopia
- The rest of the region indicates dominant probabilities of 55-85% of Above –normal rainfall
Seasonal forecasts
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Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over the whole region.
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over southern and eastern Ethiopia, Somalia, parts of central, eastern, and coastal Kenya, southern Uganda, Rwanda, northern Burundi, and north-western Tanzania.
- Drier than usual conditions expected over parts of western …
Rainfall forecast
- Drier than normal conditions expected over parts of the northern and eastern regions of the country.
- Average conditions expected over parts of central, western, south-eastern and north-eastern areas of the country.
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over the whole country.
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over southern Sudan, parts of Ethiopia, much of South Sudan, Uganda, and parts of western Kenya.
- Drier than usual conditions expected over much of Kenya, south-eastern Ethiopia, Somalia, north-western South …
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over eastern half of the country.
- Drier than usual conditions expected over western parts of the country.
Rainfall forecast
- Drier than usual conditions expected all over the country.
Temperature forecast
- Average temperatures expected over western areas of the country.
- Cooler than usual conditions expected over most parts of the country.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions expected over northern areas of Sudan, central to south-eastern Ethiopia, Somalia, Kenya, southern Uganda, and much of Tanzania.
- Average temperatures expected over areas in western South Sudan, central Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, …
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions expected all over the country.
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than normal conditions expected over Sudan, South Sudan, north-western Eritrea, Djibouti, much of Ethiopia, Uganda, western Kenya, and eastern Rwanda.
- Normal conditions expected over north-western South Sudan, north-western Kenya, and north-eastern Somalia.
- Drier than …
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than normal conditions expected over most parts of the country except part of north-western where average rainfall is expected.
Rainfall forecast
- Drier than normal conditions expected over most parts of the country.
- Normal to above normal rainfall conditions expected over north-eastern and north-western parts of the country.
Temperature forecast
- Average temperature conditions expected over the southern parts of the country.
- Cooler than normal conditions expected over the northern and south-eastern areas of the country.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than normal conditions expected over most parts of the country.
- Cooler than normal to average conditions expected over coastal and north-western parts of the country.