Our seasonal forecasts
Our seasonal forecasts help Eastern Africa prepare for the season and mitigate the effects of climate extremes.
October - December 2026
Rainfall
Temperature
- Southern Ethiopia, Somalia and cross border areas of Kenya, Uganda, and South Sudan are expected to experience maximum dry days of 8 to 10 days.
- Long wet spells expected over parts of Rwanda, Burundi, and Lake Victoria Regions in Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda.
- Onset expected to start in September and progress southwards following the southward progression of the rain band
- A delayed onset is expected in the western parts of the region, while early onset is expected in the eastern and southern parts
- Higest probability of seasonal rainfall exceeding 400 mm indicated over southern Somalia, southern Kenya, south-eastern Uganda, Burundi and north-western Tanzania
- Above normal temperatures are expected across most of the Greater Horn of Africa, with particularly high probabilities in Somalia, Ethiopia and coastal regions.
- Increased likelihood of wetter-than-normal conditions are predicted over most parts of the region with the highest probabilities over north-eastern Kenya, central to southern Somalia and south eastern Ethiopia
- The rest of the region indicates dominant probabilities of 55-85% of Above –normal rainfall
Seasonal forecasts
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Temperature forecast
- Average temperature conditions expected over the southern parts of the country.
- Cooler than normal conditions expected over the northern and south-eastern areas of the country.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions are expected over most parts of the region.
- Usual temperature conditions are likely to be recorded over central and western Tanzania, Burundi, part of western Kenya, and central and northern South …
Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
- Wetter than usual conditions likely over north-western parts of the country.
- Usual conditions likely over the rest of the country.
Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
- Usual conditions are expected over the northern and part of central areas of the country.
- Drier than usual conditions are expected over the southern parts of the country.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual are conditions likely over most parts of the country.
- Usual conditions are expected over the central part of the country.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual temperatures are expected over the whole country.
Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
- Wetter than usual conditions are expected over southern areas of Sudan, north-eastern South Sudan, and north-western and eastern Ethiopia.
- Usual conditions are expected over much of South Sudan, western and northern Ethiopia, northern Somalia, western …
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions are expected over much of the country.
- Usual conditions are expected over central and northern parts of the country.
Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
- Wetter than usual conditions are expected over western Kenya, Uganda, South Sudan, much of
Ethiopia, Djibouti, Eritrea, and Sudan. - Usual conditions are expected over few areas in north-eastern South Sudan, western Ethiopia, and coastal Kenya. …
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions are expected over the whole country.
Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
- Wetter than usual conditions are likely over part of the northern areas of the country.
- Usual conditions are expected over northern and central areas of the country.
- Drier than usual conditions are expected over the …
Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
- Wetter than usual conditions are expected over most parts of the country.
- Usual conditions are expected over areas in north-western parts of the country.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions are expected over much of Tanzania, Kenya, eastern Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, southern and north-eastern Somalia, much of Ethiopia, Djibouti, north-western South Sudan, and northern Sudan.
- Usual conditions are expected over western …
Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
- Drier than usual conditions are expected over southwestern South Sudan, much of southeastern Ethiopia, much of Kenya, Tanzania, Rwanda, Burundi, Somalia, western parts of Eritrea, and coastal Sudan. Stakeholders are advised to take the necessary …
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual temperatures likely to be recorded all over the country