Our seasonal forecasts
Our seasonal forecasts help Eastern Africa prepare for the season and mitigate the effects of climate extremes.
October - December 2026
Rainfall
Temperature
- Southern Ethiopia, Somalia and cross border areas of Kenya, Uganda, and South Sudan are expected to experience maximum dry days of 8 to 10 days.
- Long wet spells expected over parts of Rwanda, Burundi, and Lake Victoria Regions in Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda.
- Onset expected to start in September and progress southwards following the southward progression of the rain band
- A delayed onset is expected in the western parts of the region, while early onset is expected in the eastern and southern parts
- Higest probability of seasonal rainfall exceeding 400 mm indicated over southern Somalia, southern Kenya, south-eastern Uganda, Burundi and north-western Tanzania
- Above normal temperatures are expected across most of the Greater Horn of Africa, with particularly high probabilities in Somalia, Ethiopia and coastal regions.
- Increased likelihood of wetter-than-normal conditions are predicted over most parts of the region with the highest probabilities over north-eastern Kenya, central to southern Somalia and south eastern Ethiopia
- The rest of the region indicates dominant probabilities of 55-85% of Above –normal rainfall
Seasonal forecasts
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Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual temperatures likely to be recorded all over the country
Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
- Average rainfall conditions likely to be recorded over small locations in the central parts of the country
- Drier than average rainfall conditions likely to be recorded over the rest of the country
Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
- Wetter than average rainfall conditions likely to be recorded over much of eastern part of the country
- Average conditions likely to be recorded over southern, central, and northern parts extending to north western parts of …
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over most parts of the northern sector of the region, western Kenya, and much of Uganda.
- Drier than usual conditions expected over isolated areas in South Sudan, Ethiopia, and Somalia.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than average conditions are expected over northern and southern Sudan, South Sudan, central to southern Ethiopia, Somalia, Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi and Tanzania.
- Normal to cooler than normal temperature conditions likely to be recorded …
Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over most parts of the country.
- Drier than usual conditions are expected over parts of Warrap and eastern regions of Western Bahr el Ghazal states.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions are expected over most parts of the country except over north-western parts where cooler than normal conditions are expected.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions expected over most parts of the country.
- Normal conditions expected over south-eastern parts of the country.
Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over the northern parts of the country.
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over Uganda, western Kenya, and most parts of the northern sector.
- Drier than usual conditions expected over isolated areas in northern Somalia.
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over the whole country with pockets of drier than usual conditions over the northern areas.
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over the northern parts of the country.
- Drier than usual conditions expected over areas in central-northern regions of the country.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual temperatures indicated over most parts of the region.
- Average temperatures likely to be recorded over part of eastern Sudan, Djibouti, and around Mt. Elgon areas of Kenya-Uganda.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions expected over the whole country.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions expected over the whole country.