Our seasonal forecasts
Our seasonal forecasts help Eastern Africa prepare for the season and mitigate the effects of climate extremes.
June - September
Rainfall
Temperature
- Longest dry-spell lengths after onset expected over western Kenya, eastern Uganda, southern Ethiopia, northern Sudan.
- Much of the region is likely to experience first dry-spell length ranging from 4 to 8 days
- Longer wet-spell lengths after seasonal onset are expected over parts of northwestern Ethiopia, while shorter wet-spell lengths are anticipated over northeastern Ethiopia and Sudan
- The onset of rainfall shows a progression from south to north following the movement of the ITCZ.
- Enhanced probabilities of a late onset are indicated across much of the region. However, parts of southwestern, north-central Ethiopia, and parts of Sudan show likelihood of an early to near-normal onset
- Significantly higher likelihood for above-normal temperatures are indicated across the vast majority of the Greater Horn of Africa region.
- The highest probabilities of above-normal temperatures are concentrated over northern Sudan, most parts of South Sudan and Ethiopia
- Wettern than normal conditions indicated over parts of coastal Somalia and Kenya, northern Sudan, southern Ethiopia, and northern Somalia while near-normal conditions are expected over most of central Sudan.
- Enhanced likelihood Below-normal rainfall across much of the northern GHA, including South Sudan, Ethiopia, parts of Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, Uganda, and western Kenya.
Seasonal forecasts
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Rainfall forecast
- Drier than usual conditions expected over most parts of the country with isolated area in the north-eastern part of the country expected to record near normal rainfall.
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over parts of northern and isolated areas in the southern coastal parts of the country.
- The rest of the country is generally dry during this season
Temperature forecast
- Average temperatures likely to be recorded over central to western parts of the country
- Cooler than normal conditions expected over south-eastern and north-eastern parts of the country
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than normal conditions expected over southern and some central parts of the country
- Average temperatures likely to be recorded over central and northern parts of the country
- Cooler than normal conditions expected over the …
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than normal conditions expected over most parts of the northern Greater Horn of Africa
- Normal to depressed rainfall expected over coastal Kenya, extending to adjacent areas of Somalia and parts of south-eastern Ethiopia.
- Tanzania, …
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than normal conditions expected all over the country
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than normal conditions expected over northern parts of the country
- Drier than normal conditions expected over southern parts of the country
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than normal conditions expected over southern parts of Somalia, central to south-eastern Ethiopia, much of Kenya and Tanzania, Burundi, a few areas in Uganda, and northern Sudan.
- Average temperatures likely to be recorded over …
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions expected over much of the country.
- Usual conditions expected over north-western parts of the country.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions expected over much of the country.
- Usual conditions expected over the northern areas of the country.
Temperature forecast
Seasonal Temperature forecast July - September
- Warmer than usual conditions likely over northern Sudan, north-western Uganda, Rwanda, much of Tanzania, Kenya, South Sudan, Somalia, and Ethiopia.
- Usual conditions are likely over parts of western Tanzania, …
Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over the whole country with the highest probabilities over the eastern parts.
Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
Seasonal Rainfall forecast July - September
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over Sudan, South Sudan, much of Ethiopia, Eritrea, Djibouti, north-western Somalia, and western Kenya.
- Usual conditions are likely over coastal Kenya and southern coastal …
Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over the northern parts of the country.
- Usual conditions expected over the southern coastal areas.
Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
- Wetter than usual conditions over the central and northern parts of the country
- High likelihood of drier than usual conditions over parts of the southern region