Our seasonal forecasts
Our seasonal forecasts help Eastern Africa prepare for the season and mitigate the effects of climate extremes.
October - December 2026
Rainfall
Temperature
- Southern Ethiopia, Somalia and cross border areas of Kenya, Uganda, and South Sudan are expected to experience maximum dry days of 8 to 10 days.
- Long wet spells expected over parts of Rwanda, Burundi, and Lake Victoria Regions in Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda.
- Onset expected to start in September and progress southwards following the southward progression of the rain band
- A delayed onset is expected in the western parts of the region, while early onset is expected in the eastern and southern parts
- Higest probability of seasonal rainfall exceeding 400 mm indicated over southern Somalia, southern Kenya, south-eastern Uganda, Burundi and north-western Tanzania
- Above normal temperatures are expected across most of the Greater Horn of Africa, with particularly high probabilities in Somalia, Ethiopia and coastal regions.
- Increased likelihood of wetter-than-normal conditions are predicted over most parts of the region with the highest probabilities over north-eastern Kenya, central to southern Somalia and south eastern Ethiopia
- The rest of the region indicates dominant probabilities of 55-85% of Above –normal rainfall
Seasonal forecasts
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Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual temperatures indicated over the whole region.
- Highest probabilities are indicated over northern Sudan, parts of Ethiopia, Somalia, Kenya, and Tanzania.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions expected over the whole country.
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over northern and southern coastal parts of Somalia, south-eastern Ethiopia, cross-border areas of Ethiopia-Sudan-South Sudan, and coastal Kenya.
- Drier than usual conditions expected over most parts of Sudan, South Sudan, …
Rainfall forecast
- Drier than usual conditions expected over most parts of the country with isolated area in the north-eastern part of the country expected to record near normal rainfall.
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over parts of northern and isolated areas in the southern coastal parts of the country.
- The rest of the country is generally dry during this season
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than normal conditions expected over the whole country.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than normal conditions expected over southern parts of Somalia, central to south-eastern Ethiopia, much of Kenya and Tanzania, Burundi, a few areas in Uganda, and northern Sudan.
- Average temperatures likely to be recorded over …
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than normal conditions expected over most parts of the northern Greater Horn of Africa
- Normal to depressed rainfall expected over coastal Kenya, extending to adjacent areas of Somalia and parts of south-eastern Ethiopia.
- Tanzania, …
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than normal conditions expected all over the country
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than normal conditions expected over northern parts of the country
- Drier than normal conditions expected over southern parts of the country
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than normal conditions expected over southern and some central parts of the country
- Average temperatures likely to be recorded over central and northern parts of the country
- Cooler than normal conditions expected over the …
Temperature forecast
- Average temperatures likely to be recorded over central to western parts of the country
- Cooler than normal conditions expected over south-eastern and north-eastern parts of the country
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions expected over much of the country.
- Usual conditions expected over the northern areas of the country.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions expected over much of the country.
- Usual conditions expected over north-western parts of the country.
Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
Seasonal Rainfall forecast July - September
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over Sudan, South Sudan, much of Ethiopia, Eritrea, Djibouti, north-western Somalia, and western Kenya.
- Usual conditions are likely over coastal Kenya and southern coastal …