Our seasonal forecasts
Our seasonal forecasts help Eastern Africa prepare for the season and mitigate the effects of climate extremes.
August - October 2025
Rainfall
Temperature
- Warmer than average conditions are expected over northern and southern Sudan, eastern and western South Sudan, central to southern Ethiopia, Somalia, southern and north-eastern Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi and Tanzania.
- Normal to cooler than normal temperature conditions likely to be recorded over north-western Somalia, northern Ethiopia, southern Djibouti, western Eritrea, parts of western, central and eastern Sudan north-western Kenya, north-eastern Uganda and south-eastern South Sudan.
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over most parts of the northern sector of the region, western Kenya, Uganda and Rwanda.
- Drier than usual conditions expected over part of north-western South Sudan, south-eastern Ethiopia, central to southern Somalia, and eastern Kenya.
Seasonal forecasts
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Rainfall forecast
- Drier than usual conditions expected over south-eastern Ethiopia, central to southern Somalia, eastern Kenya, and isolated areas in western Uganda and South Sudan.
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over western Kenya, eastern Uganda, much of …
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over most parts of the northern sector of the region.
- Drier than usual conditions expected over few places in southern Somalia and isolated areas in Ethiopia and South Sudan.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions are expected over most parts of the region.
- Normal to cooler than normal temperatures are expected over the cross-border areas of South Sudan-Uganda-Kenya.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions expected over most parts of the country.
- Normal to cooler than normal conditions expected over south-eastern parts of the country.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions expected over the whole country.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions expected over the whole country.
Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
- Drier than usual conditions are expected over central to western parts of the country.
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over the eastern parts of the country.
Onset anomalies
- Near normal onset expected over most parts of the region with late onset expected over north-eastern Ethiopia and few places over South Sudan.
Probability Onset
- Normal onset forecast over most parts of the region
- Delayed onset indicated in localized areas of north-eastern and western parts of the region
Probability of 400 mm
- High chances of exceeding 400 mm over parts of western Kenya, nrthern Uganda, central to western Ethiopia, South Sudan, and southern Sudan.
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than normal conditions expected over much of the northern GHA covering much of Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, Ethiopia, south Sudan, Uganda, western Kenya, costal parts of Kenya and Somalia.
- Drier than normal conditions expected over …
Onset dates
- The onset of rainfall forecast shows a progression from south to north from May over the equatorial sector to August over the far north.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than average temperatures are expected over most parts of the region.
- Higher probabilities of above-average temperatures are indicated over northern Sudan, southern and coastal parts of the region.
- Normal temperatures are expected over …
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over the whole country.
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over the southern parts of the country.
- Drier than usual conditions expected over localized areas over the north western parts of the country.