Our seasonal forecasts
Our seasonal forecasts help Eastern Africa prepare for the season and mitigate the effects of climate extremes.
June - September
Rainfall
Temperature
- Longest dry-spell lengths after onset expected over western Kenya, eastern Uganda, southern Ethiopia, northern Sudan.
- Much of the region is likely to experience first dry-spell length ranging from 4 to 8 days
- Longer wet-spell lengths after seasonal onset are expected over parts of northwestern Ethiopia, while shorter wet-spell lengths are anticipated over northeastern Ethiopia and Sudan
- The onset of rainfall shows a progression from south to north following the movement of the ITCZ.
- Enhanced probabilities of a late onset are indicated across much of the region. However, parts of southwestern, north-central Ethiopia, and parts of Sudan show likelihood of an early to near-normal onset
- Significantly higher likelihood for above-normal temperatures are indicated across the vast majority of the Greater Horn of Africa region.
- The highest probabilities of above-normal temperatures are concentrated over northern Sudan, most parts of South Sudan and Ethiopia
- Wettern than normal conditions indicated over parts of coastal Somalia and Kenya, northern Sudan, southern Ethiopia, and northern Somalia while near-normal conditions are expected over most of central Sudan.
- Enhanced likelihood Below-normal rainfall across much of the northern GHA, including South Sudan, Ethiopia, parts of Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, Uganda, and western Kenya.
Seasonal forecasts
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Temperature forecast
- Areas in eastern and South Sudan - Sudan border are likely to experience cooler than usual temperatures
- Usual and warmer than usual temperatures are expected over the western, southwestern, central , and northeastern parts of …
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual temperatures are likely to be recorded all over the country
Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
Rainfall Forecast Update July to September
- A wetter than usual season continues to be expected through July, August and September, with much of Sudan expecting higher than usual rain.
- A drier than usual season is …
Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
- Wetter than usual conditions over the central and northern parts of the country
- High likelihood of drier than usual conditions over parts of the southern region
Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
- Wetter than usual conditions over the eastern and northwestern parts of the country
- Drier than usual conditions over the western and southern parts of the country
Temperature forecast
- Significantly higher likelihood for above-normal temperatures are indicated across the vast majority of the Greater Horn of Africa region.
- The highest probabilities of above-normal temperatures are concentrated over northern Sudan, most parts of South Sudan …
Probability Onset
- Enhanced probabilities of a late onset are indicated across much of the region. However, parts of southwestern, north-central Ethiopia, and parts of Sudan show likelihood of an early to near-normal onset
Onset dates
- The onset of rainfall shows a progression from south to north following the movement of the ITCZ.
Length of wet spells
- Longer wet-spell lengths after seasonal onset are expected over parts of northwestern Ethiopia, while shorter wet-spell lengths are anticipated over northeastern Ethiopia and Sudan
Length of dry spells
- Longest dry-spell lengths after onset expected over western Kenya, eastern Uganda, southern Ethiopia, northern Sudan.
- Much of the region is likely to experience first dry-spell length ranging from 4 to 8 days
Rainfall forecast
- Wettern than normal conditions indicated over parts of coastal Somalia and Kenya, northern Sudan, southern Ethiopia, and northern Somalia while near-normal conditions are expected over most of central Sudan.
- Enhanced likelihood Below-normal rainfall across much …
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than normal conditions expected over most parts of Ethiopia, parts of northern and central and southern Somalia, northern Eritrea, South Sudan, central to southern Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, and Tanzania.
- Normal to drier than …
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than normal conditions are expected throughout the whole country.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than normal conditions expected over the whole country.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions are expected over most parts of the region.
- Normal to cooler than normal temperature conditions likely to be recorded over few areas in Ethiopia, Kenya and Tanzania.