Our seasonal forecasts
Our seasonal forecasts help Eastern Africa prepare for the season and mitigate the effects of climate extremes.
October - December 2026
Rainfall
Temperature
- Southern Ethiopia, Somalia and cross border areas of Kenya, Uganda, and South Sudan are expected to experience maximum dry days of 8 to 10 days.
- Long wet spells expected over parts of Rwanda, Burundi, and Lake Victoria Regions in Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda.
- Onset expected to start in September and progress southwards following the southward progression of the rain band
- A delayed onset is expected in the western parts of the region, while early onset is expected in the eastern and southern parts
- Higest probability of seasonal rainfall exceeding 400 mm indicated over southern Somalia, southern Kenya, south-eastern Uganda, Burundi and north-western Tanzania
- Above normal temperatures are expected across most of the Greater Horn of Africa, with particularly high probabilities in Somalia, Ethiopia and coastal regions.
- Increased likelihood of wetter-than-normal conditions are predicted over most parts of the region with the highest probabilities over north-eastern Kenya, central to southern Somalia and south eastern Ethiopia
- The rest of the region indicates dominant probabilities of 55-85% of Above –normal rainfall
Seasonal forecasts
Filter by Product Type
Filter by Region
Filter by Season
Filter by Year
Showing 490 results
Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
Seasonal Rainfall forecast July - September
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over Sudan, South Sudan, much of Ethiopia, Eritrea, Djibouti, north-western Somalia, and western Kenya.
- Usual conditions are likely over coastal Kenya and southern coastal …
Temperature forecast
Seasonal Temperature forecast July - September
- Warmer than usual conditions likely over northern Sudan, north-western Uganda, Rwanda, much of Tanzania, Kenya, South Sudan, Somalia, and Ethiopia.
- Usual conditions are likely over parts of western Tanzania, …
Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over the northern parts of the country.
- Usual conditions expected over the southern coastal areas.
Temperature forecast
- Areas in eastern and South Sudan - Sudan border are likely to experience cooler than usual temperatures
- Usual and warmer than usual temperatures are expected over the western, southwestern, central , and northeastern parts of …
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual temperatures are expected over northern parts of Sudan, southwestern and northeastern South Sudan, eastern and coastal Kenya, Somalia, Djibouti, Rwanda, Burundi, and much of Tanzania.
- Cooler than usual temperatures are expected over …
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual temperatures are likely to be recorded all over the country
Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
Rainfall Forecast Update July to September
- A wetter than usual season continues to be expected through July, August and September, with much of Sudan expecting higher than usual rain.
- A drier than usual season is …
Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
- Wetter than usual conditions over the central and northern parts of the country
- High likelihood of drier than usual conditions over parts of the southern region
Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
- Wetter than usual conditions over the eastern and northwestern parts of the country
- Drier than usual conditions over the western and southern parts of the country
Rainfall forecast
- Wettern than normal conditions indicated over parts of coastal Somalia and Kenya, northern Sudan, southern Ethiopia, and northern Somalia while near-normal conditions are expected over most of central Sudan.
- Enhanced likelihood Below-normal rainfall across much …
Probability Onset
- Enhanced probabilities of a late onset are indicated across much of the region. However, parts of southwestern, north-central Ethiopia, and parts of Sudan show likelihood of an early to near-normal onset
Onset dates
- The onset of rainfall shows a progression from south to north following the movement of the ITCZ.
Length of dry spells
- Longest dry-spell lengths after onset expected over western Kenya, eastern Uganda, southern Ethiopia, northern Sudan.
- Much of the region is likely to experience first dry-spell length ranging from 4 to 8 days
Length of wet spells
- Longer wet-spell lengths after seasonal onset are expected over parts of northwestern Ethiopia, while shorter wet-spell lengths are anticipated over northeastern Ethiopia and Sudan
Temperature forecast
- Significantly higher likelihood for above-normal temperatures are indicated across the vast majority of the Greater Horn of Africa region.
- The highest probabilities of above-normal temperatures are concentrated over northern Sudan, most parts of South Sudan …