Our seasonal forecasts
Our seasonal forecasts help Eastern Africa prepare for the season and mitigate the effects of climate extremes.
August - October 2025
Rainfall
Temperature
- Warmer than average conditions are expected over northern and southern Sudan, eastern and western South Sudan, central to southern Ethiopia, Somalia, southern and north-eastern Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi and Tanzania.
- Normal to cooler than normal temperature conditions likely to be recorded over north-western Somalia, northern Ethiopia, southern Djibouti, western Eritrea, parts of western, central and eastern Sudan north-western Kenya, north-eastern Uganda and south-eastern South Sudan.
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over most parts of the northern sector of the region, western Kenya, Uganda and Rwanda.
- Drier than usual conditions expected over part of north-western South Sudan, south-eastern Ethiopia, central to southern Somalia, and eastern Kenya.
Seasonal forecasts
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Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than normal conditions expected over most parts of the region, specifically over Kenya, Somalia, southern Ethiopia, South Sudan, Uganda, Burundi, Rwanda, and north-western Tanzania.
- Highest probabilities of wetter than usual conditions indicated in …
Probability of 400 mm
- High chances of rainfall exceeding 400 mm over south-western Ethiopia, the Lake Victoria Basin, and western Rwanda and Burundi.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions expected over the whole country.
Probability Onset
- Normal onset forecast over most parts of the region.
- Delayed onset indicated in localized areas of southern and northern Ethiopia and Kenya.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than average temperatures are expected all over the region.
- Highest probabilities are indicated over Sudan, northern South Sudan, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Djibouti, Somalia and southern areas of Tanzania.
Onset anomalies
- Normal onset forecast over most parts of the region.
- Late onset indicated in localized areas of southern and northern Ethiopia and western Kenya.
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over parts of northern and southern coastal areas of the country.
- Average conditions expected over north-western areas of the country.
- Central and areas in southern parts of the country are …
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over northern and southern coastal parts of Somalia, south-eastern Ethiopia, cross-border areas of Ethiopia-Sudan-South Sudan, and coastal Kenya.
- Drier than normal conditions expected over most parts of Sudan, South Sudan, …
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than average temperatures predicted over the whole region.
- Highest probabilities over northern Sudan, parts of Ethiopia, Somalia, Kenya, and Tanzania.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than normal conditions expected all over the country.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than normal conditions expected all over the country.
Rainfall forecast
- Drier than normal conditions expected over most parts of the country.
- Average conditions expected over central-northern to north-eastern parts of the country.
Probability Onset
- Rain excpected to start on time over most parts of the region while a delay is excpected over north-eastern Tanzania, Rwanda, Burundi, and central Somalia.
Rainfall forecast
- Drier than usual rainfall is indicated over eastern (Ethiopia, Eritrea, Djibouti, Somalia, eastern Kenya) and western (western South Sudan, Uganda, and Rwanda) parts of the region.
- Wetter than usual rainfall are indicated over cross-border …