Our seasonal forecasts
Our seasonal forecasts help Eastern Africa prepare for the season and mitigate the effects of climate extremes.
June - September
Rainfall
Temperature
- Longest dry-spell lengths after onset expected over western Kenya, eastern Uganda, southern Ethiopia, northern Sudan.
- Much of the region is likely to experience first dry-spell length ranging from 4 to 8 days
- Longer wet-spell lengths after seasonal onset are expected over parts of northwestern Ethiopia, while shorter wet-spell lengths are anticipated over northeastern Ethiopia and Sudan
- The onset of rainfall shows a progression from south to north following the movement of the ITCZ.
- Enhanced probabilities of a late onset are indicated across much of the region. However, parts of southwestern, north-central Ethiopia, and parts of Sudan show likelihood of an early to near-normal onset
- Significantly higher likelihood for above-normal temperatures are indicated across the vast majority of the Greater Horn of Africa region.
- The highest probabilities of above-normal temperatures are concentrated over northern Sudan, most parts of South Sudan and Ethiopia
- Wettern than normal conditions indicated over parts of coastal Somalia and Kenya, northern Sudan, southern Ethiopia, and northern Somalia while near-normal conditions are expected over most of central Sudan.
- Enhanced likelihood Below-normal rainfall across much of the northern GHA, including South Sudan, Ethiopia, parts of Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, Uganda, and western Kenya.
Seasonal forecasts
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Rainfall forecast
- Drier than usual conditions expected over most parts of Ethiopia, Somalia, Djibouti, Kenya, Rwanda, Burundi, western Uganda and South Sudan, and north-western Tanzania.
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over western and south-western Kenya, eastern Uganda, …
Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over most parts of the country.
- Drier than usual conditions are expected over a small area in south-western South Sudan.
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over most parts of the northern sector of the region.
- Drier than usual conditions expected over few places in southern Somalia and isolated areas in Ethiopia and South Sudan.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions are expected over most parts of the region.
- Normal temperatures are expected over areas in south-eastern South Sudan and north-eastern Uganda.
Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
- Drier than usual conditions are expected over central to western parts of the country.
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over the eastern parts of the country.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions expected over the whole country.
Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
- Drier than usual conditions expected over most parts of the country.
- Normal to above normal conditions expected over areas in the northern regions of the country.
Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over most parts of the country.
- Drier than usual conditions expected over southern parts of the country.
Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over most parts of the country.
- Drier than usual conditions are expected over a small area in western South Sudan.
Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
- Drier than usual conditions expected over most parts of the country.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions are expected over most parts of the region.
- Normal to cooler than normal temperatures likely to be recorded over cross border areas of Kenya-Uganda-South Sudan and Ethiopia-Sudan-Eritrea.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions expected over most parts of the country.
- Normal to cooler than normal conditions expected over central to south-eastern parts of the country.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions expected over the whole country.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions expected over the whole country.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions expected over the whole country.