Our seasonal forecasts
Our seasonal forecasts help Eastern Africa prepare for the season and mitigate the effects of climate extremes.
June - August 2025
Rainfall
Temperature
- Warmer than average conditions are expected over northern an southern Sudan, South Sudan, much of Ethiopia, Somalia, Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi and Tanzania.
- Near Normal temperatures expected central Sudan, north-western Ethiopia, and parts of south-western South Sudan.
- Cooler than normal temperatures likely to be recorded over isolated areas in northern Somalia, northern Ethiopia, parts of southern Djibouti, a few regions in western and eastern Sudan and cross border areas of Kenya-Uganda-South Sudan-Ethiopia.
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over most parts of the northern sector of the region.
- Drier than usual conditions expected over few places in southern Sudan, north-western South Sudan, and isolated areas in southern coastal Somalia and Kenya.
Seasonal forecasts
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Rainfall forecast
- Drier than normal conditions expected over most parts of the country.
- Average conditions expected over central-northern to north-eastern parts of the country.
Onset dates
- Onset expected from second week of March over western and south-western Kenya and progress northwards.
Rainfall forecast
- Drier than usual rainfall is indicated over eastern (Ethiopia, Eritrea, Djibouti, Somalia, eastern Kenya) and western (western South Sudan, Uganda, and Rwanda) parts of the region.
- Wetter than usual rainfall are indicated over cross-border …
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than average temperatures are expected all over the region with highest probabilities indicated over Sudan, Ethiopia, Kenya, and southern areas of Tanzania.
Probability of 300 mm
- High chances of exceeding 300 mm rainfallover central to western Kenya, Tanzania, Rwanda, Burundi, Uganda, south western South Sudan, and south-western Ethiopia.
Probability of 400 mm
- High chances of exceeding 400 mm rainfall over the Lake Victoria Basin and south-western Ethiopia.
- Low chances of exceeding 40 mm rainfall over the rest of the region.
Probability Onset
- Rain excpected to start on time over most parts of the region while a delay is excpected over north-eastern Tanzania, Rwanda, Burundi, and central Somalia.
Onset anomalies
- Early onset expected in eastern South Sudan and parts of Ethiopia.
Probability of 300 mm
- Higher chances of rainfall exceeding 300 mm over central to western Ethiopia, South Sudan, Uganda, and southern Sudan.
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than normal conditions expected over most parts of northern Greater Horn of Africa (GHA).
- Drier than normal conditions expected over coastal Kenya, southern coast of Somalia, and localized areas in south-eastern Ethiopia.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than normal temperatures expected over eastern parts of the region and northern areas of Sudan.
- Near normal temperatures expected in the western and south-western parts of Tanzania, Burundi, eastern Rwanda, central Ethiopia, and part …
Length of wet spells
- Longest wet spells expected over western to central Ethiopia.
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than usual conditions are expected over the eastern parts of the country.
- Usual conditions are expected over central and western parts of the country.
- Drier than usual conditions are expected over a few areas …
Probability of 300 mm
- The highest chances of rainfall exceeding 300 mm are expected over southern and north-western Tanzania, Burundi, Uganda, western Kenya, and south-western Ethiopia.