Our seasonal forecasts
Our seasonal forecasts help Eastern Africa prepare for the season and mitigate the effects of climate extremes.
October - December 2025
Rainfall
Temperature
- Warmer than average conditions expected over most parts of the region with highest probabilities over parts of Kenya, Ethiopia, Djibouti, Somalia, and Tanzania.
- Normal to cooler than normal temperature conditions likely to be recorded over coastal areas of Sudan and northern central Eritrea.
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over southern parts of South Sudan, part of north-eastern Somalia, northern and south-western Uganda, and northern parts of Rwanda.
- Drier than usual conditions expected over most parts of Somalia, Djibouti, coastal Sudan and Eritrea, southern Ethiopia, Kenya, central to southern Uganda, and Tanzania.
Seasonal forecasts
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Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions expected over the whole country.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions expected over the whole country.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions expected over most parts of the country.
- Normal to cooler than normal conditions expected over central to south-eastern parts of the country.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions are expected over most parts of the region.
- Normal to cooler than normal temperatures likely to be recorded over cross border areas of Kenya-Uganda-South Sudan and Ethiopia-Sudan-Eritrea.
Onset dates
- The onset of rainfall forecast shows a progression from south to north from May over the equatorial sector to August over the far north.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than average temperatures are expected over most parts of the region.
- Higher probabilities of above-average temperatures are indicated over northern Sudan, southern and coastal parts of the region.
- Normal temperatures are expected over …
Probability Onset
- Normal onset forecast over most parts of the region
- Delayed onset indicated in localized areas of north-eastern and western parts of the region
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than normal conditions expected over much of the northern GHA covering much of Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, Ethiopia, south Sudan, Uganda, western Kenya, costal parts of Kenya and Somalia.
- Drier than normal conditions expected over …
Probability of 400 mm
- High chances of exceeding 400 mm over parts of western Kenya, nrthern Uganda, central to western Ethiopia, South Sudan, and southern Sudan.
Onset anomalies
- Near normal onset expected over most parts of the region with late onset expected over north-eastern Ethiopia and few places over South Sudan.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions expected over the whole country.
Probability Onset
- Normal onset forecast over most parts of the region.
- Delayed onset indicated in localized areas of southern and northern Ethiopia and Kenya.
Probability of 400 mm
- High chances of rainfall exceeding 400 mm over south-western Ethiopia, the Lake Victoria Basin, and western Rwanda and Burundi.
Onset anomalies
- Normal onset forecast over most parts of the region.
- Late onset indicated in localized areas of southern and northern Ethiopia and western Kenya.