Our seasonal forecasts
Our seasonal forecasts help Eastern Africa prepare for the season and mitigate the effects of climate extremes.
December 2025 - February 2026
Rainfall
Temperature
- Warmer than normal conditions are expected over most parts of the region.
- Normal to cooler than normal temperature conditions likely to be recorded over parts of central Kenya and Ethiopia, northern Eritrea and coastal areas of Sudan.
- Normal to wetter than normal conditions expected over parts of Burundi, and western to southern areas of Tanzania.
- Drier than normal conditions expected over central to southern Kenya, southern Uganda, eastern and western Rwanda, most parts of Burundi, central to northern, and southern Tanzania.
Seasonal forecasts
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Rainfall forecast
- Drier than usual rainfall is indicated over eastern (Ethiopia, Eritrea, Djibouti, Somalia, eastern Kenya) and western (western South Sudan, Uganda, and Rwanda) parts of the region.
- Wetter than usual rainfall are indicated over cross-border …
Onset dates
- Onset expected from second week of March over western and south-western Kenya and progress northwards.
Probability of 300 mm
- High chances of exceeding 300 mm rainfallover central to western Kenya, Tanzania, Rwanda, Burundi, Uganda, south western South Sudan, and south-western Ethiopia.
Probability Onset
- Rain excpected to start on time over most parts of the region while a delay is excpected over north-eastern Tanzania, Rwanda, Burundi, and central Somalia.
Probability of 400 mm
- High chances of exceeding 400 mm rainfall over the Lake Victoria Basin and south-western Ethiopia.
- Low chances of exceeding 40 mm rainfall over the rest of the region.
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than normal conditions expected over most parts of northern Greater Horn of Africa (GHA).
- Drier than normal conditions expected over coastal Kenya, southern coast of Somalia, and localized areas in south-eastern Ethiopia.
Length of wet spells
- Longest wet spells expected over western to central Ethiopia.
Onset anomalies
- Early onset expected in eastern South Sudan and parts of Ethiopia.
Probability of 300 mm
- Higher chances of rainfall exceeding 300 mm over central to western Ethiopia, South Sudan, Uganda, and southern Sudan.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than normal temperatures expected over eastern parts of the region and northern areas of Sudan.
- Near normal temperatures expected in the western and south-western parts of Tanzania, Burundi, eastern Rwanda, central Ethiopia, and part …
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual temperatures are expected over Kenya, Ethiopia, Djibouti, northern Sudan, and a few areas in southern Tanzania.
- Usual temperatures are likely over much of Tanzania, Burundi, Rwanda, Uganda, much of South Sudan, southern …
Probability of 300 mm
- The highest chances of rainfall exceeding 300 mm are expected over southern and north-western Tanzania, Burundi, Uganda, western Kenya, and south-western Ethiopia.
Onset dates
- Bi-Modal (areas that experience two seasons within the year) areas of Tanzania, Rwanda, and Burundi are expected to record onset from the second dekad of February.
- Uganda and Kenya are expected to record onset …
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than usual conditions are expected over areas in the south and northern parts of the country.
- Usual conditions are expected over most parts of the country.