Our seasonal forecasts
Our seasonal forecasts help Eastern Africa prepare for the season and mitigate the effects of climate extremes.
October - December 2026
Rainfall
Temperature
- Southern Ethiopia, Somalia and cross border areas of Kenya, Uganda, and South Sudan are expected to experience maximum dry days of 8 to 10 days.
- Long wet spells expected over parts of Rwanda, Burundi, and Lake Victoria Regions in Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda.
- Onset expected to start in September and progress southwards following the southward progression of the rain band
- A delayed onset is expected in the western parts of the region, while early onset is expected in the eastern and southern parts
- Higest probability of seasonal rainfall exceeding 400 mm indicated over southern Somalia, southern Kenya, south-eastern Uganda, Burundi and north-western Tanzania
- Above normal temperatures are expected across most of the Greater Horn of Africa, with particularly high probabilities in Somalia, Ethiopia and coastal regions.
- Increased likelihood of wetter-than-normal conditions are predicted over most parts of the region with the highest probabilities over north-eastern Kenya, central to southern Somalia and south eastern Ethiopia
- The rest of the region indicates dominant probabilities of 55-85% of Above –normal rainfall
Seasonal forecasts
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Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over most parts of the country.
- Drier than usual conditions expected over southern parts of the country.
Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
- Drier than usual conditions expected over most parts of the country.
Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over most parts of the country.
- Drier than usual conditions are expected over a small area in western South Sudan.
Length of dry spells
- Longest dry spells between 8 and 10 days expected over central and southern Tanzania
- Shortest dry spells between 2 and 4 days expected over coastal Kenya and Somalia, and localized areas in south-western Ethiopa.
Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
- Drier than usual conditions expected over most parts of the country.
- Normal to above normal conditions expected over areas in the northern regions of the country.
Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
- Drier than usual conditions are expected over central to western parts of the country.
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over the eastern parts of the country.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions are expected over most parts of the region.
- Normal to cooler than normal temperatures likely to be recorded over cross border areas of Kenya-Uganda-South Sudan and Ethiopia-Sudan-Eritrea.
Onset anomalies
- Delayed onset expected over central to western Kenya, Uganda, and parts of central Ethiopia
Probability Onset
- High chances for normal to early onset over most parts of the region, while delayed onset is indicated over localized areas over parts of central Kenya, Uganda, southern Ethiopia and central Somalia.
Rainfall forecast
- Drier than usual conditions expected over most parts of Ethiopia, Somalia, Djibouti, Kenya, Rwanda, Burundi, western Uganda and South Sudan, and north-western Tanzania.
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over western and south-western Kenya, eastern Uganda, …
Rainfall forecast
- Drier than usual conditions expected over south-eastern Ethiopia, central to southern Somalia, eastern Kenya, and isolated areas in western Uganda and South Sudan.
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over western Kenya, eastern Uganda, much of …
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over most parts of the northern sector of the region.
- Drier than usual conditions expected over few places in southern Somalia and isolated areas in Ethiopia and South Sudan.
Onset dates
- A south to north-eastern progression of onset starting in February to early May is expected
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions expected over the whole country.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions expected over most parts of the country.
- Normal to cooler than normal conditions expected over central to south-eastern parts of the country.