Our seasonal forecasts
Our seasonal forecasts help Eastern Africa prepare for the season and mitigate the effects of climate extremes.
August - October 2026
Rainfall
Temperature
- Warmer than usual temperatures are expected over most parts of the region.
- Wetter-than-normal conditions expected over the eastern Horn, including Somalia, south-eastern and part of western Ethiopia, eastern to coastal Kenya and over few places in South Sudan, Sudan, Eritrea, Rwanda and northern Burundi.
- Drier than usual conditions expected over much of South Sudan, Sudan, Uganda, Ethiopia, western Kenya, northern Tanzania, and Rwanda.
Seasonal forecasts
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Onset dates
- The onset of rainfall forecast shows a progression from south to north from May over the equatorial sector to August over the far north.
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than normal conditions expected over much of the northern GHA covering much of Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, Ethiopia, south Sudan, Uganda, western Kenya, costal parts of Kenya and Somalia.
- Drier than normal conditions expected over …
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions expected over the whole country.
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over the whole country.
Probability Onset
- Normal onset forecast over most parts of the region.
- Delayed onset indicated in localized areas of southern and northern Ethiopia and Kenya.
Probability of 400 mm
- High chances of rainfall exceeding 400 mm over south-western Ethiopia, the Lake Victoria Basin, and western Rwanda and Burundi.
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over the southern parts of the country.
- Drier than usual conditions expected over localized areas over the north western parts of the country.
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than normal conditions expected over most parts of the region, specifically over Kenya, Somalia, southern Ethiopia, South Sudan, Uganda, Burundi, Rwanda, and north-western Tanzania.
- Highest probabilities of wetter than usual conditions indicated in …
Onset anomalies
- Normal onset forecast over most parts of the region.
- Late onset indicated in localized areas of southern and northern Ethiopia and western Kenya.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than average temperatures are expected all over the region.
- Highest probabilities are indicated over Sudan, northern South Sudan, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Djibouti, Somalia and southern areas of Tanzania.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than normal conditions expected all over the country.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than normal conditions expected all over the country.
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over parts of northern and southern coastal areas of the country.
- Average conditions expected over north-western areas of the country.
- Central and areas in southern parts of the country are …
Rainfall forecast
- Drier than normal conditions expected over most parts of the country.
- Average conditions expected over central-northern to north-eastern parts of the country.