Our seasonal forecasts
Our seasonal forecasts help Eastern Africa prepare for the season and mitigate the effects of climate extremes.
June - September
Rainfall
Temperature
- Longest dry-spell lengths after onset expected over western Kenya, eastern Uganda, southern Ethiopia, northern Sudan.
- Much of the region is likely to experience first dry-spell length ranging from 4 to 8 days
- Longer wet-spell lengths after seasonal onset are expected over parts of northwestern Ethiopia, while shorter wet-spell lengths are anticipated over northeastern Ethiopia and Sudan
- The onset of rainfall shows a progression from south to north following the movement of the ITCZ.
- Enhanced probabilities of a late onset are indicated across much of the region. However, parts of southwestern, north-central Ethiopia, and parts of Sudan show likelihood of an early to near-normal onset
- Significantly higher likelihood for above-normal temperatures are indicated across the vast majority of the Greater Horn of Africa region.
- The highest probabilities of above-normal temperatures are concentrated over northern Sudan, most parts of South Sudan and Ethiopia
- Wettern than normal conditions indicated over parts of coastal Somalia and Kenya, northern Sudan, southern Ethiopia, and northern Somalia while near-normal conditions are expected over most of central Sudan.
- Enhanced likelihood Below-normal rainfall across much of the northern GHA, including South Sudan, Ethiopia, parts of Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, Uganda, and western Kenya.
Seasonal forecasts
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Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions expected over the whole country.
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over the whole country.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than average temperatures are expected all over the region.
- Highest probabilities are indicated over Sudan, northern South Sudan, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Djibouti, Somalia and southern areas of Tanzania.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than normal conditions expected all over the country.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than average temperatures predicted over the whole region.
- Highest probabilities over northern Sudan, parts of Ethiopia, Somalia, Kenya, and Tanzania.
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over parts of northern and southern coastal areas of the country.
- Average conditions expected over north-western areas of the country.
- Central and areas in southern parts of the country are …
Rainfall forecast
- Drier than normal conditions expected over most parts of the country.
- Average conditions expected over central-northern to north-eastern parts of the country.
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over northern and southern coastal parts of Somalia, south-eastern Ethiopia, cross-border areas of Ethiopia-Sudan-South Sudan, and coastal Kenya.
- Drier than normal conditions expected over most parts of Sudan, South Sudan, …
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than normal conditions expected all over the country.
Probability Onset
- Rain excpected to start on time over most parts of the region while a delay is excpected over north-eastern Tanzania, Rwanda, Burundi, and central Somalia.
Probability of 400 mm
- High chances of exceeding 400 mm rainfall over the Lake Victoria Basin and south-western Ethiopia.
- Low chances of exceeding 40 mm rainfall over the rest of the region.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than average temperatures are expected all over the region with highest probabilities indicated over Sudan, Ethiopia, Kenya, and southern areas of Tanzania.
Rainfall forecast
- Drier than usual rainfall is indicated over eastern (Ethiopia, Eritrea, Djibouti, Somalia, eastern Kenya) and western (western South Sudan, Uganda, and Rwanda) parts of the region.
- Wetter than usual rainfall are indicated over cross-border …
Onset dates
- Onset expected from second week of March over western and south-western Kenya and progress northwards.
Probability of 300 mm
- High chances of exceeding 300 mm rainfallover central to western Kenya, Tanzania, Rwanda, Burundi, Uganda, south western South Sudan, and south-western Ethiopia.