Our seasonal forecasts
Our seasonal forecasts help Eastern Africa prepare for the season and mitigate the effects of climate extremes.
October - December 2025
Rainfall
Temperature
- Warmer than average conditions expected over most parts of the region with highest probabilities over parts of Kenya, Ethiopia, Djibouti, Somalia, and Tanzania.
- Normal to cooler than normal temperature conditions likely to be recorded over coastal areas of Sudan and northern central Eritrea.
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over southern parts of South Sudan, part of north-eastern Somalia, northern and south-western Uganda, and northern parts of Rwanda.
- Drier than usual conditions expected over most parts of Somalia, Djibouti, coastal Sudan and Eritrea, southern Ethiopia, Kenya, central to southern Uganda, and Tanzania.
Seasonal forecasts
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Probability of 400 mm
- High chances of exceeding 400 mm rainfall over the Lake Victoria Basin and south-western Ethiopia.
- Low chances of exceeding 40 mm rainfall over the rest of the region.
Length of wet spells
- Longest wet spells expected over western to central Ethiopia.
Probability of 300 mm
- Higher chances of rainfall exceeding 300 mm over central to western Ethiopia, South Sudan, Uganda, and southern Sudan.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than normal temperatures expected over eastern parts of the region and northern areas of Sudan.
- Near normal temperatures expected in the western and south-western parts of Tanzania, Burundi, eastern Rwanda, central Ethiopia, and part …
Onset anomalies
- Early onset expected in eastern South Sudan and parts of Ethiopia.
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than normal conditions expected over most parts of northern Greater Horn of Africa (GHA).
- Drier than normal conditions expected over coastal Kenya, southern coast of Somalia, and localized areas in south-eastern Ethiopia.
Length of dry spells
- The longest first dry spell after the onset is expected over Tanzania, eastern Kenya, and northern Somalia.
- The rest of the region is expected to record the first dry spell of between 2 and 8 …
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions are expected over the central parts of the country.
- Usual conditions are expected over the south and northern parts of the country.
- Cooler than usual conditions are expected over a few …
Probability of 300 mm
- The highest chances of rainfall exceeding 300 mm are expected over southern and north-western Tanzania, Burundi, Uganda, western Kenya, and south-western Ethiopia.
Length of wet spells
- Maximum wet spells of about 10 days are expected over western Kenya while the rest of the region is likely to record wet spells of between 4 and 8 days.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual temperatures are expected over Kenya, Ethiopia, Djibouti, northern Sudan, and a few areas in southern Tanzania.
- Usual temperatures are likely over much of Tanzania, Burundi, Rwanda, Uganda, much of South Sudan, southern …
Onset dates
- Bi-Modal (areas that experience two seasons within the year) areas of Tanzania, Rwanda, and Burundi are expected to record onset from the second dekad of February.
- Uganda and Kenya are expected to record onset …
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions are expected over north-western, north-eastern, and southern parts of the country.
- Usual conditions are expected over the northern and central parts of the country.
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than usual conditions are expected over Tanzania, Burundi, Rwanda, Uganda, eastern South Sudan, Kenya, and a few places in Ethiopia and Somalia.
- Usual conditions are expected over much of central to southern Somalia, south-eastern …