Our seasonal forecasts
Our seasonal forecasts help Eastern Africa prepare for the season and mitigate the effects of climate extremes.
June - August 2025
Rainfall
Temperature
- Warmer than average conditions are expected over northern an southern Sudan, South Sudan, much of Ethiopia, Somalia, Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi and Tanzania.
- Near Normal temperatures expected central Sudan, north-western Ethiopia, and parts of south-western South Sudan.
- Cooler than normal temperatures likely to be recorded over isolated areas in northern Somalia, northern Ethiopia, parts of southern Djibouti, a few regions in western and eastern Sudan and cross border areas of Kenya-Uganda-South Sudan-Ethiopia.
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over most parts of the northern sector of the region.
- Drier than usual conditions expected over few places in southern Sudan, north-western South Sudan, and isolated areas in southern coastal Somalia and Kenya.
Seasonal forecasts
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Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions likely over central and northern parts of the country.
- Cooler than usual conditions likely over the southern parts of the country.
Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
- Wetter than usual conditions likely over few areas in north-eastern parts of the country.
- Usual conditions expected over most parts of the country.
- Drier than usual conditions likely over small area in north-western part of …
Probability of 300 mm
- High probabilities (> 50%) of receiving more than 300 mm of rainfall during March-May 2021 over much of Tanzania, Rwanda, Burundi, western Kenya, Uganda, south-western South Sudan, and south-western Ethiopia.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions likely over eastern, north-eastern, and north-western parts of the country.
- Usual conditions likely over western and northern parts of the country.
- Cooler than usual conditions expected over southern and south-eastern parts …
Onset anomalies
- The season is expected to start 1-2 weeks early in northern Tanzania, northern Uganda, western and eastern Kenya, most of South Sudan, south-western Ethiopia, and southern Somalia.
- A late onset is expected over north-eastern Ethiopia …
Length of wet spells
- Long continuous wet days (10 - 15 days) in South Sudan, south-western Ethiopia, Uganda, Burundi, Rwanda, and parts of Tanzania.
- Short wet spells over eastern Kenya, north-eastern Ethiopia, and parts of north-eastern Somalia.
Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
Headline: A wetter than usual season is expected over most farming areas in the central and southern parts of the region. While a drier than usual season is expected over north-eastern Ethiopia. The season is …
Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
- Wetter than usual conditions likely over eastern and south eastern parts of the country.
- Usual conditions likely over most parts of the country.
- Drier than usual conditions likely over small area in the western parts …
Temperature forecast
The season is expected to be warmer than usual in north-eastern Somalia, Djibouti, Eritrea, Sudan, north-eastern and north-western South Sudan, Rwanda, and eastern and central Ethiopia.
While the temperature is expected to be cooler than …
Onset dates
- The season is expected to start 1-2 weeks early in northern Tanzania, northern Uganda, western and eastern Kenya, most of South Sudan, south-western Ethiopia, and southern Somalia.
- On the other hand, a late onset is …
Onset dates
Regarding the beginning of the season, earlier than usual start of rains is expected across most of the region, especially over northern Tanzania, northern Uganda, western and north-eastern Kenya, south-western Ethiopia, and southern Somalia. A …