Our seasonal forecasts
Our seasonal forecasts help Eastern Africa prepare for the season and mitigate the effects of climate extremes.
March - May 2026
Rainfall
Temperature
- Warmer than usual conditions are expected over most parts of the region.
- Normal to cooler than normal temperature conditions likely to be recorded over few areas in Ethiopia, Kenya and Tanzania.
- Wetter than normal conditions expected over most parts of Ethiopia, parts of northern and central and southern Somalia, northern Eritrea, South Sudan, central to southern Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, and Tanzania.
- Normal to drier than normal conditions are expected over western and northern Kenya, western and eastern Uganda, south-western to central and north-eastern Ethiopia, Djibouti, western South Sudan and most parts of Somalia.
Seasonal forecasts
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Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over parts of northern and southern coastal areas of the country.
- Average conditions expected over north-western areas of the country.
- Central and areas in southern parts of the country are …
Rainfall forecast
- Drier than normal conditions expected over most parts of the country.
- Average conditions expected over central-northern to north-eastern parts of the country.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than average temperatures predicted over the whole region.
- Highest probabilities over northern Sudan, parts of Ethiopia, Somalia, Kenya, and Tanzania.
Rainfall forecast
- Drier than usual rainfall is indicated over eastern (Ethiopia, Eritrea, Djibouti, Somalia, eastern Kenya) and western (western South Sudan, Uganda, and Rwanda) parts of the region.
- Wetter than usual rainfall are indicated over cross-border …
Probability Onset
- Rain excpected to start on time over most parts of the region while a delay is excpected over north-eastern Tanzania, Rwanda, Burundi, and central Somalia.
Probability of 300 mm
- High chances of exceeding 300 mm rainfallover central to western Kenya, Tanzania, Rwanda, Burundi, Uganda, south western South Sudan, and south-western Ethiopia.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than average temperatures are expected all over the region with highest probabilities indicated over Sudan, Ethiopia, Kenya, and southern areas of Tanzania.
Probability of 400 mm
- High chances of exceeding 400 mm rainfall over the Lake Victoria Basin and south-western Ethiopia.
- Low chances of exceeding 40 mm rainfall over the rest of the region.
Onset dates
- Onset expected from second week of March over western and south-western Kenya and progress northwards.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than normal temperatures expected over eastern parts of the region and northern areas of Sudan.
- Near normal temperatures expected in the western and south-western parts of Tanzania, Burundi, eastern Rwanda, central Ethiopia, and part …
Probability of 300 mm
- Higher chances of rainfall exceeding 300 mm over central to western Ethiopia, South Sudan, Uganda, and southern Sudan.
Length of wet spells
- Longest wet spells expected over western to central Ethiopia.
Onset anomalies
- Early onset expected in eastern South Sudan and parts of Ethiopia.
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than normal conditions expected over most parts of northern Greater Horn of Africa (GHA).
- Drier than normal conditions expected over coastal Kenya, southern coast of Somalia, and localized areas in south-eastern Ethiopia.