Our seasonal forecasts
Our seasonal forecasts help Eastern Africa prepare for the season and mitigate the effects of climate extremes.
March - May 2026
Rainfall
Temperature
- Warmer than usual conditions are expected over most parts of the region.
- Normal to cooler than normal temperature conditions likely to be recorded over few areas in Ethiopia, Kenya and Tanzania.
- Wetter than normal conditions expected over most parts of Ethiopia, parts of northern and central and southern Somalia, northern Eritrea, South Sudan, central to southern Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, and Tanzania.
- Normal to drier than normal conditions are expected over western and northern Kenya, western and eastern Uganda, south-western to central and north-eastern Ethiopia, Djibouti, western South Sudan and most parts of Somalia.
Seasonal forecasts
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Probability of 400 mm
- Highest probabilities of rainfall exceeding 400mm in western Ethiopia, South Sudan, northern Uganda, southern areas of Sudan.
Length of wet spells
- Long continuous wet days (10 - 15 days) in South Sudan, south-western Ethiopia, Uganda, Burundi, Rwanda, and parts of Tanzania.
- Short wet spells over eastern Kenya, north-eastern Ethiopia, and parts of north-eastern Somalia.
Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
- Wetter than usual conditions likely over few areas in north-eastern parts of the country.
- Usual conditions expected over most parts of the country.
- Drier than usual conditions likely over small area in north-western part of …
Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
- Wetter than usual conditions likely over eastern and south eastern parts of the country.
- Usual conditions likely over most parts of the country.
- Drier than usual conditions likely over small area in the western parts …
Onset dates
- The season is expected to start 1-2 weeks early in northern Tanzania, northern Uganda, western and eastern Kenya, most of South Sudan, south-western Ethiopia, and southern Somalia.
- On the other hand, a late onset is …
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions likely over central and northern parts of the country.
- Cooler than usual conditions likely over the southern parts of the country.
Temperature forecast
The season is expected to be warmer than usual in north-eastern Somalia, Djibouti, Eritrea, Sudan, north-eastern and north-western South Sudan, Rwanda, and eastern and central Ethiopia.
While the temperature is expected to be cooler than …
Onset anomalies
- The season is expected to start 1-2 weeks early in northern Tanzania, northern Uganda, western and eastern Kenya, most of South Sudan, south-western Ethiopia, and southern Somalia.
- A late onset is expected over north-eastern Ethiopia …
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions likely over eastern, north-eastern, and north-western parts of the country.
- Usual conditions likely over western and northern parts of the country.
- Cooler than usual conditions expected over southern and south-eastern parts …
Probability of 300 mm
- High probabilities (> 50%) of receiving more than 300 mm of rainfall during March-May 2021 over much of Tanzania, Rwanda, Burundi, western Kenya, Uganda, south-western South Sudan, and south-western Ethiopia.
