Our seasonal forecasts
Our seasonal forecasts help Eastern Africa prepare for the season and mitigate the effects of climate extremes.
December 2025 - February 2026
Rainfall
Temperature
- Warmer than normal conditions are expected over most parts of the region.
- Normal to cooler than normal temperature conditions likely to be recorded over parts of central Kenya and Ethiopia, northern Eritrea and coastal areas of Sudan.
- Normal to wetter than normal conditions expected over parts of Burundi, and western to southern areas of Tanzania.
- Drier than normal conditions expected over central to southern Kenya, southern Uganda, eastern and western Rwanda, most parts of Burundi, central to northern, and southern Tanzania.
Seasonal forecasts
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Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
- Wetter than usual conditions likely over eastern and south eastern parts of the country.
- Usual conditions likely over most parts of the country.
- Drier than usual conditions likely over small area in the western parts …
Onset dates
- The season is expected to start 1-2 weeks early in northern Tanzania, northern Uganda, western and eastern Kenya, most of South Sudan, south-western Ethiopia, and southern Somalia.
- On the other hand, a late onset is …
Probability of 300 mm
- High probabilities (> 50%) of receiving more than 300 mm of rainfall during March-May 2021 over much of Tanzania, Rwanda, Burundi, western Kenya, Uganda, south-western South Sudan, and south-western Ethiopia.
Length of wet spells
- Long continuous wet days (10 - 15 days) in South Sudan, south-western Ethiopia, Uganda, Burundi, Rwanda, and parts of Tanzania.
- Short wet spells over eastern Kenya, north-eastern Ethiopia, and parts of north-eastern Somalia.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions likely over eastern, north-eastern, and north-western parts of the country.
- Usual conditions likely over western and northern parts of the country.
- Cooler than usual conditions expected over southern and south-eastern parts …
Onset anomalies
- The season is expected to start 1-2 weeks early in northern Tanzania, northern Uganda, western and eastern Kenya, most of South Sudan, south-western Ethiopia, and southern Somalia.
- A late onset is expected over north-eastern Ethiopia …
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions likely over central and northern parts of the country.
- Cooler than usual conditions likely over the southern parts of the country.
Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
Headline: A wetter than usual season is expected over most farming areas in the central and southern parts of the region. While a drier than usual season is expected over north-eastern Ethiopia. The season is …
Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
- Wetter than usual conditions likely over few areas in north-eastern parts of the country.
- Usual conditions expected over most parts of the country.
- Drier than usual conditions likely over small area in north-western part of …
Temperature forecast
Press Release: http://bit.ly/2S5mu3U
Onset dates
Regarding the beginning of the season, earlier than usual start of rains is expected across most of the region, especially over northern Tanzania, northern Uganda, western and north-eastern Kenya, south-western Ethiopia, and southern Somalia. A …