Our seasonal forecasts
Our seasonal forecasts help Eastern Africa prepare for the season and mitigate the effects of climate extremes.
June - September
Rainfall
Temperature
- Longest dry-spell lengths after onset expected over western Kenya, eastern Uganda, southern Ethiopia, northern Sudan.
- Much of the region is likely to experience first dry-spell length ranging from 4 to 8 days
- Longer wet-spell lengths after seasonal onset are expected over parts of northwestern Ethiopia, while shorter wet-spell lengths are anticipated over northeastern Ethiopia and Sudan
- The onset of rainfall shows a progression from south to north following the movement of the ITCZ.
- Enhanced probabilities of a late onset are indicated across much of the region. However, parts of southwestern, north-central Ethiopia, and parts of Sudan show likelihood of an early to near-normal onset
- Significantly higher likelihood for above-normal temperatures are indicated across the vast majority of the Greater Horn of Africa region.
- The highest probabilities of above-normal temperatures are concentrated over northern Sudan, most parts of South Sudan and Ethiopia
- Wettern than normal conditions indicated over parts of coastal Somalia and Kenya, northern Sudan, southern Ethiopia, and northern Somalia while near-normal conditions are expected over most of central Sudan.
- Enhanced likelihood Below-normal rainfall across much of the northern GHA, including South Sudan, Ethiopia, parts of Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, Uganda, and western Kenya.
Seasonal forecasts
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Temperature forecast
- Warmer than average conditions are expected over northern an southern Sudan, South Sudan, much of Ethiopia, Somalia, Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi and Tanzania.
- Near Normal temperatures expected central Sudan, north-western Ethiopia, and parts of south-western …
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over most parts of the northern sector of the region.
- Drier than usual conditions expected over few places in southern Sudan, north-western South Sudan, and isolated areas in southern coastal …
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions expected over most parts of the country.
- Normal to cooler than normal conditions expected over south-eastern parts of the country.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions are expected over most parts of the country except over north-western parts where cooler than normal conditions are expected.
Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over most parts of the country.
- Drier than usual conditions are expected over parts of north-western and north-eastern areas of South Sudan.
Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
- Drier than usual conditions expected over most parts of the country.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions expected over the whole country
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions expected over the whole region
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over few areas in north-western and southern coastal parts of the country
- The rest of the country is usually dry during this season
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over most parts of Uganda, South Sudan, Sudan, central to northern Ethiopia, Djibouti, Eritrea, western and coastal Kenya, and southern coastal Somalia
- Drier than usual conditions expected over corss border …
Temperature anomalies
All parts of the region showed warmer than the average maximum temperature. Mean temperature difference exceeding 2° was observed in parts of central and northern Sudan, in central Eritrea, part of northern Ethiopia, northeastern Somalia, …
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over most parts of the country
- Drier than usual conditions expected over north-eastern parts of the country
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions expected over the whole country
Temperature forecast
- Cooler than normal conditions expected over the country, with highest probabilities over the eastern parts.
Rainfall forecast
- Above normal rainfall expected over few areas in the north-western parts.
- Normal to below normal rainfall expected over the southern areas.