Our seasonal forecasts
Our seasonal forecasts help Eastern Africa prepare for the season and mitigate the effects of climate extremes.
October - December 2026
Rainfall
Temperature
- Southern Ethiopia, Somalia and cross border areas of Kenya, Uganda, and South Sudan are expected to experience maximum dry days of 8 to 10 days.
- Long wet spells expected over parts of Rwanda, Burundi, and Lake Victoria Regions in Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda.
- Onset expected to start in September and progress southwards following the southward progression of the rain band
- A delayed onset is expected in the western parts of the region, while early onset is expected in the eastern and southern parts
- Higest probability of seasonal rainfall exceeding 400 mm indicated over southern Somalia, southern Kenya, south-eastern Uganda, Burundi and north-western Tanzania
- Above normal temperatures are expected across most of the Greater Horn of Africa, with particularly high probabilities in Somalia, Ethiopia and coastal regions.
- Increased likelihood of wetter-than-normal conditions are predicted over most parts of the region with the highest probabilities over north-eastern Kenya, central to southern Somalia and south eastern Ethiopia
- The rest of the region indicates dominant probabilities of 55-85% of Above –normal rainfall
Seasonal forecasts
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Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions expected over the eastern and northern parts of the region
- Cooler than usual conditions expected over the western parts of the region
Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over Uganda, western Kenya, South Sudan, Sudan, much of Ethiopia, Djibouti and Eritrea
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions likely over central and northern parts of the country.
- Cooler than usual conditions likely over the southern parts of the country.
Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
Headline: A wetter than usual season is expected over most farming areas in the central and southern parts of the region. While a drier than usual season is expected over north-eastern Ethiopia. The season is …
Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
- Wetter than usual conditions likely over few areas in north-eastern parts of the country.
- Usual conditions expected over most parts of the country.
- Drier than usual conditions likely over small area in north-western part of …
Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
- Wetter than usual conditions likely over eastern and south eastern parts of the country.
- Usual conditions likely over most parts of the country.
- Drier than usual conditions likely over small area in the western parts …
Probability of 300 mm
- High probabilities (> 50%) of receiving more than 300 mm of rainfall during March-May 2021 over much of Tanzania, Rwanda, Burundi, western Kenya, Uganda, south-western South Sudan, and south-western Ethiopia.
Length of wet spells
- Long continuous wet days (10 - 15 days) in South Sudan, south-western Ethiopia, Uganda, Burundi, Rwanda, and parts of Tanzania.
- Short wet spells over eastern Kenya, north-eastern Ethiopia, and parts of north-eastern Somalia.
Onset dates
- The season is expected to start 1-2 weeks early in northern Tanzania, northern Uganda, western and eastern Kenya, most of South Sudan, south-western Ethiopia, and southern Somalia.
- On the other hand, a late onset is …
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions likely over eastern, north-eastern, and north-western parts of the country.
- Usual conditions likely over western and northern parts of the country.
- Cooler than usual conditions expected over southern and south-eastern parts …