Our seasonal forecasts
Our seasonal forecasts help Eastern Africa prepare for the season and mitigate the effects of climate extremes.
October - December 2026
Rainfall
Temperature
- Southern Ethiopia, Somalia and cross border areas of Kenya, Uganda, and South Sudan are expected to experience maximum dry days of 8 to 10 days.
- Long wet spells expected over parts of Rwanda, Burundi, and Lake Victoria Regions in Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda.
- Onset expected to start in September and progress southwards following the southward progression of the rain band
- A delayed onset is expected in the western parts of the region, while early onset is expected in the eastern and southern parts
- Higest probability of seasonal rainfall exceeding 400 mm indicated over southern Somalia, southern Kenya, south-eastern Uganda, Burundi and north-western Tanzania
- Above normal temperatures are expected across most of the Greater Horn of Africa, with particularly high probabilities in Somalia, Ethiopia and coastal regions.
- Increased likelihood of wetter-than-normal conditions are predicted over most parts of the region with the highest probabilities over north-eastern Kenya, central to southern Somalia and south eastern Ethiopia
- The rest of the region indicates dominant probabilities of 55-85% of Above –normal rainfall
Seasonal forecasts
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Onset anomalies
- The season is expected to start 1-2 weeks early in northern Tanzania, northern Uganda, western and eastern Kenya, most of South Sudan, south-western Ethiopia, and southern Somalia.
- A late onset is expected over north-eastern Ethiopia …
Temperature forecast
The season is expected to be warmer than usual in north-eastern Somalia, Djibouti, Eritrea, Sudan, north-eastern and north-western South Sudan, Rwanda, and eastern and central Ethiopia.
While the temperature is expected to be cooler than …
Onset anomalies
Regarding the beginning of the season, earlier than usual start of rains is expected across most of the region, especially over northern Tanzania, northern Uganda, western and north-eastern Kenya, south-western Ethiopia, and southern Somalia. A …
Temperature forecast
Press Release: http://bit.ly/2S5mu3U
Onset dates
Regarding the beginning of the season, earlier than usual start of rains is expected across most of the region, especially over northern Tanzania, northern Uganda, western and north-eastern Kenya, south-western Ethiopia, and southern Somalia. A …
Rainfall forecast
- Drier than usual conditions expected over most parts of the region with the highest probabilities over Ethiopia and South Sudan.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over the whole country.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over the whole country with the highest temperatures over eastern areas.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over the whole country.
Rainfall forecast
- Drier than usual conditions are expected over Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, Ethiopia, north-western Somalia, South Sudan, Uganda, and western Kenya. The highest probabilities are indicated over Ethiopia.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over the whole country.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual temperatures are expected over most parts of the region with highest probabilities over parts of Sudan, South Sudan, and Ethiopia.