Our seasonal forecasts
Our seasonal forecasts help Eastern Africa prepare for the season and mitigate the effects of climate extremes.
October - December 2026
Rainfall
Temperature
- Southern Ethiopia, Somalia and cross border areas of Kenya, Uganda, and South Sudan are expected to experience maximum dry days of 8 to 10 days.
- Long wet spells expected over parts of Rwanda, Burundi, and Lake Victoria Regions in Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda.
- Onset expected to start in September and progress southwards following the southward progression of the rain band
- A delayed onset is expected in the western parts of the region, while early onset is expected in the eastern and southern parts
- Higest probability of seasonal rainfall exceeding 400 mm indicated over southern Somalia, southern Kenya, south-eastern Uganda, Burundi and north-western Tanzania
- Above normal temperatures are expected across most of the Greater Horn of Africa, with particularly high probabilities in Somalia, Ethiopia and coastal regions.
- Increased likelihood of wetter-than-normal conditions are predicted over most parts of the region with the highest probabilities over north-eastern Kenya, central to southern Somalia and south eastern Ethiopia
- The rest of the region indicates dominant probabilities of 55-85% of Above –normal rainfall
Seasonal forecasts
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Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over the region with the highest probabilities indicated over northern Sudan and parts of Ethiopia.
Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over most parts of the country.
- Drier than usual conditions are expected over parts of north-western and north-eastern areas of South Sudan.
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over most parts of the northern sector of the region.
- Drier than usual conditions expected over few places in southern Sudan, north-western South Sudan, and isolated areas in southern coastal …
Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
- Drier than usual conditions expected over most parts of the country.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions are expected over most parts of the country except over north-western parts where cooler than normal conditions are expected.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions expected over most parts of the country.
- Normal to cooler than normal conditions expected over south-eastern parts of the country.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than average conditions are expected over northern an southern Sudan, South Sudan, much of Ethiopia, Somalia, Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi and Tanzania.
- Near Normal temperatures expected central Sudan, north-western Ethiopia, and parts of south-western …
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over most parts of Uganda, South Sudan, Sudan, central to northern Ethiopia, Djibouti, Eritrea, western and coastal Kenya, and southern coastal Somalia
- Drier than usual conditions expected over corss border …
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions expected over the whole country
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over few areas in north-western and southern coastal parts of the country
- The rest of the country is usually dry during this season
Temperature anomalies
All parts of the region showed warmer than the average maximum temperature. Mean temperature difference exceeding 2° was observed in parts of central and northern Sudan, in central Eritrea, part of northern Ethiopia, northeastern Somalia, …
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions expected over the whole country
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions expected over the whole region
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over most parts of the country
- Drier than usual conditions expected over north-eastern parts of the country
Rainfall forecast
- Above normal rainfall expected over few areas in the north-western parts.
- Normal to below normal rainfall expected over the southern areas.