Our seasonal forecasts
Our seasonal forecasts help Eastern Africa prepare for the season and mitigate the effects of climate extremes.
June - September
Rainfall
Temperature
- Longest dry-spell lengths after onset expected over western Kenya, eastern Uganda, southern Ethiopia, northern Sudan.
- Much of the region is likely to experience first dry-spell length ranging from 4 to 8 days
- Longer wet-spell lengths after seasonal onset are expected over parts of northwestern Ethiopia, while shorter wet-spell lengths are anticipated over northeastern Ethiopia and Sudan
- The onset of rainfall shows a progression from south to north following the movement of the ITCZ.
- Enhanced probabilities of a late onset are indicated across much of the region. However, parts of southwestern, north-central Ethiopia, and parts of Sudan show likelihood of an early to near-normal onset
- Significantly higher likelihood for above-normal temperatures are indicated across the vast majority of the Greater Horn of Africa region.
- The highest probabilities of above-normal temperatures are concentrated over northern Sudan, most parts of South Sudan and Ethiopia
- Wettern than normal conditions indicated over parts of coastal Somalia and Kenya, northern Sudan, southern Ethiopia, and northern Somalia while near-normal conditions are expected over most of central Sudan.
- Enhanced likelihood Below-normal rainfall across much of the northern GHA, including South Sudan, Ethiopia, parts of Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, Uganda, and western Kenya.
Seasonal forecasts
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Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than normal conditions expected over southern and north-western areas of the country.
- Drier than normal conditions expected over central to north-eastern areas of the country.
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than normal conditions expected over most parts of the country.
- Drier than usual conditions expected over the northern and few isolated areas in the country.
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than normal conditions expected over most parts of the region including Ethiopia, Djibouti, northern Eritrea, Kenya, central to southern Somalia, central to southern South Sudan, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, Tanzania.
- Drier than normal conditions expected …
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than normal conditions are expected over most parts of the country.
- Normal to cooler than normal conditions expected over few areas in northern parts of the country.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than normal conditions expected over the whole country.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions expected over the whole country.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions expected over most parts of the region.
- Cooler than usual conditions expected over central areas of Ethiopia and central Kenya.
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over most parts of Somalia, Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, northern Tanzania and southern South Sudan.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions expected over the whole country.
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over parts of central to southern Tanzania, central Kenya, and north-eastern Ethiopia.
- Drier than usual conditions expected over northern Tanzania, Burundi, Rwanda, southern Uganda, and south-western to western Kenya.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions expected over most parts of the country.
- Normal to cooler than normal conditions expected over parts of southern and north-western areas of the country.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions expected over most parts of the country.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions expected over most parts of the region.
- Normal to cooler than normal conditions expected over paers of southern to northern Ethiopia, Eritrea and coastal Sudan.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions expected over the whole region with enhanced probabilities over the northern, eastern and southern areas.
Rainfall forecast
- Drier than usual conditions expected over Ethiopia, central to northern Kenya, central to western Uganda, part of southern South Sudan, southern Eritrea, Djibouti, most parts of Somalia, Rwanda, Burundi and few places in Tanzania.
- Wetter …