Our seasonal forecasts
Our seasonal forecasts help Eastern Africa prepare for the season and mitigate the effects of climate extremes.
June - September
Rainfall
Temperature
- Longest dry-spell lengths after onset expected over western Kenya, eastern Uganda, southern Ethiopia, northern Sudan.
- Much of the region is likely to experience first dry-spell length ranging from 4 to 8 days
- Longer wet-spell lengths after seasonal onset are expected over parts of northwestern Ethiopia, while shorter wet-spell lengths are anticipated over northeastern Ethiopia and Sudan
- The onset of rainfall shows a progression from south to north following the movement of the ITCZ.
- Enhanced probabilities of a late onset are indicated across much of the region. However, parts of southwestern, north-central Ethiopia, and parts of Sudan show likelihood of an early to near-normal onset
- Significantly higher likelihood for above-normal temperatures are indicated across the vast majority of the Greater Horn of Africa region.
- The highest probabilities of above-normal temperatures are concentrated over northern Sudan, most parts of South Sudan and Ethiopia
- Wettern than normal conditions indicated over parts of coastal Somalia and Kenya, northern Sudan, southern Ethiopia, and northern Somalia while near-normal conditions are expected over most of central Sudan.
- Enhanced likelihood Below-normal rainfall across much of the northern GHA, including South Sudan, Ethiopia, parts of Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, Uganda, and western Kenya.
Seasonal forecasts
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Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions expected over the whole country.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions expected over the whole country.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions expected over most parts of the region, with the highest probabilities indicated over Sudan, eastern areas, and south-western parts of the region.
- Normal temperatures likely to be recorded expected over parts …
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions expected over the whole country.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions expected over the whole country.
Rainfall forecast
- Drier than usual conditions eexpected over central and north-eastern areas of Ethiopia, most parts of Kenya, south-eastern Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, and north-western and coastal Tanzania.
- Normal to wetter than usual conditions expected over parts of …
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over most parts of the country
- Drier than usual conditions expected over the western, northeastern and small areas in eastern and north-eastern parts of the country.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions expected over the whole country.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions expected over the whole country.
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over the whole country
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over most parts of the equatorial and northern sectors of the region.
- Drier than usual conditions expected over parts of western Ethiopia, western to north-western South Sudan, central Uganda, south-eastern …
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual temperatures indicated over the whole region.
- The highest probabilities are indicated over Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, Ethiopia and coastal parts of Somalia, Kenya and Tanzania.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than normal conditions expected all over the country
Rainfall forecast
- Drier than normal conditions expected over isolated areas in the country
- Wetter than average conditions expected over isolated area in the northern parts of the country
Rainfall forecast
- Drier than usual conditions predicted over southern Ethiopia, Uganda, western parts of Rwanda, Burundi, north-western Tanzania, and parts of southern Somalia.
- Wetter than usual rainfall conditions expected over parts of northern South Sudan, Ethiopia, and …