Our seasonal forecasts
Our seasonal forecasts help Eastern Africa prepare for the season and mitigate the effects of climate extremes.
October - December 2026
Rainfall
Temperature
- Southern Ethiopia, Somalia and cross border areas of Kenya, Uganda, and South Sudan are expected to experience maximum dry days of 8 to 10 days.
- Long wet spells expected over parts of Rwanda, Burundi, and Lake Victoria Regions in Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda.
- Onset expected to start in September and progress southwards following the southward progression of the rain band
- A delayed onset is expected in the western parts of the region, while early onset is expected in the eastern and southern parts
- Higest probability of seasonal rainfall exceeding 400 mm indicated over southern Somalia, southern Kenya, south-eastern Uganda, Burundi and north-western Tanzania
- Above normal temperatures are expected across most of the Greater Horn of Africa, with particularly high probabilities in Somalia, Ethiopia and coastal regions.
- Increased likelihood of wetter-than-normal conditions are predicted over most parts of the region with the highest probabilities over north-eastern Kenya, central to southern Somalia and south eastern Ethiopia
- The rest of the region indicates dominant probabilities of 55-85% of Above –normal rainfall
Seasonal forecasts
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Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than normal conditions expected over most parts of the northern Greater Horn of Africa.
- Normal to depressed rainfall conditions expected over coastal Kenya extending to adjacent areas of Somalia.
- Tanzania, Rwanda, Burundi, much of …
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than normal conditions expected over southern parts of Somalia, south-eastern Ethiopia, much of Kenya, and central to eastern Tanzania.
- Normal temperatures are likely to be recorded over western and southern Tanzania, Burundi, Rwanda, few …
Rainfall forecast
- Warmer than normal conditions expected over the southern parts f the country.
- Normal temperatures likely to be recorded over the central parts of the country.
- Cooler than normal conditions expected over the northern areas of …
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than normal conditions expected over most parts of the country except the central and northern areas where normal conditions are expected.
Temperature forecast
- Cooler than normal conditions expected over the country, with highest probabilities over the eastern parts.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions likely over the whole country
Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
- Wetter than usual conditions likely over southern coastal and localized area in northwestern parts of the country
- Average to drier than usual conditions likely over southern parts bordering Kenya
Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over western Kenya, southern and eastern Uganda, eastern and central South Sudan, south western and northern Ethiopia, Djibouti, and Sudan
- Average conditions likely over coastal Kenya extending to Somalia
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions likely over most parts of the country
- Average conditions expected over eastern and south eastern parts of the country
Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
- Wetter than usual conditions likely over eastern, central and western parts of the country
- Average conditions likely over southern and north western areas of the country
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions likely over much of Kenya, southern and coastal Tanzania, Somalia, Ethiopia, Djibouti, Eritrea, Sudan, and western South Sudan
- Average conditions likely over eastern South Sudan, western Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, and …
Temperature forecast
Warmer than average seasonal temperatures are likely to be recorded all over the country with the highest probabilities over the southern areas.
Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
Average to depressed rainfall is likely to be recorded over the southern parts of the country. Central and much of the northern parts are likely to record average rainfall conditions.
Northern coastal regions have high …
Temperature forecast
Most parts of the country are likely to record warmer than average temperatures with south-eastern regions likely to record average to cooler than average temperature conditions.
Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
Areas in the eastern and north-western parts of the country have high chances for wetter than average rainfall, while central and western border areas having high probabilities for average rainfall.