Our seasonal forecasts
Our seasonal forecasts help Eastern Africa prepare for the season and mitigate the effects of climate extremes.
June - September
Rainfall
Temperature
- Longest dry-spell lengths after onset expected over western Kenya, eastern Uganda, southern Ethiopia, northern Sudan.
- Much of the region is likely to experience first dry-spell length ranging from 4 to 8 days
- Longer wet-spell lengths after seasonal onset are expected over parts of northwestern Ethiopia, while shorter wet-spell lengths are anticipated over northeastern Ethiopia and Sudan
- The onset of rainfall shows a progression from south to north following the movement of the ITCZ.
- Enhanced probabilities of a late onset are indicated across much of the region. However, parts of southwestern, north-central Ethiopia, and parts of Sudan show likelihood of an early to near-normal onset
- Significantly higher likelihood for above-normal temperatures are indicated across the vast majority of the Greater Horn of Africa region.
- The highest probabilities of above-normal temperatures are concentrated over northern Sudan, most parts of South Sudan and Ethiopia
- Wettern than normal conditions indicated over parts of coastal Somalia and Kenya, northern Sudan, southern Ethiopia, and northern Somalia while near-normal conditions are expected over most of central Sudan.
- Enhanced likelihood Below-normal rainfall across much of the northern GHA, including South Sudan, Ethiopia, parts of Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, Uganda, and western Kenya.
Seasonal forecasts
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Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected across the region with the highest probabilities over Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, Rwanda, Burundi, and eastern Tanzania.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than normal conditions expected all over the country
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over few areas in northern parts of the country
- Drier than usual conditions expected over some areas in central and southern parts of the country
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions expected over most parts of the region.
- Average temperatures likely to be recorded over small areas of western Ethiopia and Tanzania.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than normal conditions expected all over the country
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over parts of central to southern Tanzania.
- Average conditions expected over areas of central Tanzania, eastern Kenya, and north-eastern Somalia.
- Drier than usual conditions expected over north-western Tanzania, Burundi, Rwanda, …
Rainfall forecast
- Drier than norma lconditions expected over southern and part of north eastern areas of the country
- Average conditions expected over central and parts of northern areas of the country
Rainfall forecast
- Drier than normal conditions ex[pected over south western parts of the country
- Normal to drier than normal conditions expected over south eastern areas of the country
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than normal conditions expected all over the country
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the region.
- Average conditions expected over small areas in western South Sudan and South-western Uganda.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions expected all over the country.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions expected over most parts of the country.
- Average temperatures expected over some areas in south-western parts of the country.
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over a few places in western and north-eastern Tanzania.
- Normal conditions expected over most parts of Tanzania.
- Drier than usual conditions expected over areas in central Tanzania, Rwanda, and southern …
Rainfall forecast
- Drier than usual conditions expected over central to south-western Kenya, southern Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, and Tanzania.
- The rest of the region is generally dry during this season.