Our seasonal forecasts
Our seasonal forecasts help Eastern Africa prepare for the season and mitigate the effects of climate extremes.
October - December 2026
Rainfall
Temperature
- Southern Ethiopia, Somalia and cross border areas of Kenya, Uganda, and South Sudan are expected to experience maximum dry days of 8 to 10 days.
- Long wet spells expected over parts of Rwanda, Burundi, and Lake Victoria Regions in Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda.
- Onset expected to start in September and progress southwards following the southward progression of the rain band
- A delayed onset is expected in the western parts of the region, while early onset is expected in the eastern and southern parts
- Higest probability of seasonal rainfall exceeding 400 mm indicated over southern Somalia, southern Kenya, south-eastern Uganda, Burundi and north-western Tanzania
- Above normal temperatures are expected across most of the Greater Horn of Africa, with particularly high probabilities in Somalia, Ethiopia and coastal regions.
- Increased likelihood of wetter-than-normal conditions are predicted over most parts of the region with the highest probabilities over north-eastern Kenya, central to southern Somalia and south eastern Ethiopia
- The rest of the region indicates dominant probabilities of 55-85% of Above –normal rainfall
Seasonal forecasts
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Temperature forecast
- Warmer than normal conditions expected over the whole country.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual temperatures are expected over most parts of the region.
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter-than-normal conditions expected over the eastern Horn, including Somalia, south-eastern and part of western Ethiopia, eastern to coastal Kenya and over few places in South Sudan, Sudan, Eritrea, Rwanda and northern Burundi.
- Drier than usual …
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than normal conditions are expected over the whole country.
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than normal conditions expected over most parts of the country.
- Drier than usual conditions expected over the northern and few isolated areas in the country.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than normal conditions expected over the whole country.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions expected over most parts of Sudan, South Sudan, northern and western Ethiopia, Djibouti, Eritrea, southern Somalia, Uganda, northern and eastern Kenya, Rwanda, Burundi and Tanzania.
- Normal to cooler than normal conditions …
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than normal conditions expected over most parts of the region including Ethiopia, Djibouti, northern Eritrea, Kenya, central to southern Somalia, central to southern South Sudan, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, Tanzania.
- Drier than normal conditions expected …
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than normal conditions expected over southern and north-western areas of the country.
- Drier than normal conditions expected over central to north-eastern areas of the country.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than normal conditions are expected over most parts of the country.
- Normal to cooler than normal conditions expected over few areas in northern parts of the country.
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over most parts of Somalia, Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, northern Tanzania and southern South Sudan.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions expected over the whole country.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions expected over the whole country.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions expected over most parts of the region.
- Cooler than usual conditions expected over central areas of Ethiopia and central Kenya.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions expected over most parts of the country.