Our seasonal forecasts
Our seasonal forecasts help Eastern Africa prepare for the season and mitigate the effects of climate extremes.
October - December 2026
Rainfall
Temperature
- Southern Ethiopia, Somalia and cross border areas of Kenya, Uganda, and South Sudan are expected to experience maximum dry days of 8 to 10 days.
- Long wet spells expected over parts of Rwanda, Burundi, and Lake Victoria Regions in Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda.
- Onset expected to start in September and progress southwards following the southward progression of the rain band
- A delayed onset is expected in the western parts of the region, while early onset is expected in the eastern and southern parts
- Higest probability of seasonal rainfall exceeding 400 mm indicated over southern Somalia, southern Kenya, south-eastern Uganda, Burundi and north-western Tanzania
- Above normal temperatures are expected across most of the Greater Horn of Africa, with particularly high probabilities in Somalia, Ethiopia and coastal regions.
- Increased likelihood of wetter-than-normal conditions are predicted over most parts of the region with the highest probabilities over north-eastern Kenya, central to southern Somalia and south eastern Ethiopia
- The rest of the region indicates dominant probabilities of 55-85% of Above –normal rainfall
Seasonal forecasts
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Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions expected over most parts of the country.
- Normal to cooler than normal conditions expected over parts of southern and north-western areas of the country.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions expected over most parts of the region.
- Normal to cooler than normal conditions expected over paers of southern to northern Ethiopia, Eritrea and coastal Sudan.
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over parts of central to southern Tanzania, central Kenya, and north-eastern Ethiopia.
- Drier than usual conditions expected over northern Tanzania, Burundi, Rwanda, southern Uganda, and south-western to western Kenya.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions expected over the whole country.
Rainfall forecast
- Drier than usual conditions expected over Ethiopia, central to northern Kenya, central to western Uganda, part of southern South Sudan, southern Eritrea, Djibouti, most parts of Somalia, Rwanda, Burundi and few places in Tanzania.
- Wetter …
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions expected over the whole region with enhanced probabilities over the northern, eastern and southern areas.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions expected over the whole country.
Rainfall forecast
- Drier than usual conditions eexpected over central and north-eastern areas of Ethiopia, most parts of Kenya, south-eastern Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, and north-western and coastal Tanzania.
- Normal to wetter than usual conditions expected over parts of …
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions expected over the whole country.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions expected over the whole country.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions expected over most parts of the region, with the highest probabilities indicated over Sudan, eastern areas, and south-western parts of the region.
- Normal temperatures likely to be recorded expected over parts …
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over most parts of the country
- Drier than usual conditions expected over the western, northeastern and small areas in eastern and north-eastern parts of the country.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions expected over the whole country.
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over most parts of the equatorial and northern sectors of the region.
- Drier than usual conditions expected over parts of western Ethiopia, western to north-western South Sudan, central Uganda, south-eastern …
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual temperatures indicated over the whole region.
- The highest probabilities are indicated over Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, Ethiopia and coastal parts of Somalia, Kenya and Tanzania.