Our seasonal forecasts
Our seasonal forecasts help Eastern Africa prepare for the season and mitigate the effects of climate extremes.
June - September
Rainfall
Temperature
- Longest dry-spell lengths after onset expected over western Kenya, eastern Uganda, southern Ethiopia, northern Sudan.
- Much of the region is likely to experience first dry-spell length ranging from 4 to 8 days
- Longer wet-spell lengths after seasonal onset are expected over parts of northwestern Ethiopia, while shorter wet-spell lengths are anticipated over northeastern Ethiopia and Sudan
- The onset of rainfall shows a progression from south to north following the movement of the ITCZ.
- Enhanced probabilities of a late onset are indicated across much of the region. However, parts of southwestern, north-central Ethiopia, and parts of Sudan show likelihood of an early to near-normal onset
- Significantly higher likelihood for above-normal temperatures are indicated across the vast majority of the Greater Horn of Africa region.
- The highest probabilities of above-normal temperatures are concentrated over northern Sudan, most parts of South Sudan and Ethiopia
- Wettern than normal conditions indicated over parts of coastal Somalia and Kenya, northern Sudan, southern Ethiopia, and northern Somalia while near-normal conditions are expected over most of central Sudan.
- Enhanced likelihood Below-normal rainfall across much of the northern GHA, including South Sudan, Ethiopia, parts of Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, Uganda, and western Kenya.
Seasonal forecasts
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Rainfall forecast
- Drier than normal conditions expected over the southern part of the country.
- The rest of the country is generally dry in DJF.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than normal conditions expected over most parts of the country.
- Near average temperatures expected over southern parts of the country.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions expected over most parts of the region.
- Average temperatures expected over southern South Sudan, north-western Uganda, and northern Ethiopia.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than normal conditions expected all over the country.
Rainfall forecast
- Drier than usual conditions expected all over the country.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions expected all over the country.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions expected over most parts of Sudan, Eritrea, much of Ethiopia, Djibouti, Somalia, Kenya, southern Uganda and Tanzania.
- Average temperatures expected over north-western and southern areas of Sudan, western South Sudan, northern …
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over southern South Sudan, and northern and south-western Uganda.
- Drier than usual conditions expected over Kenya, southern Ethiopia, Somalia, Tanzania, Burundi, Rwanda, and southern parts of Uganda.
Temperature forecast
- Average temperatures expected over the western parts of the country.
- Colder than usual conditions expected over the eastern areas of the country.
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over southern areas of the country with pockets of average to below average conditions over south-eastern and western parts of the country.
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than normal conditions expected over south eastern parts of the country.
- Average conditions expected over the rest of the country.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than normal temperatures expected over Kenya, Ethiopia, Djibouti, Somalia, Sudan, South Sudan, Burundi, central Uganda, and a few areas in western and eastern Tanzania.
- Near normal temperatures expected over southern parts of South Sudan, …
Rainfall forecast
- Drier than normal conditions expected over a few areas in north-eastern Kenya and south-western Somalia.
- Near normal conditions expected over most of Ethiopia, Eritrea, Uganda, South Sudan, and central Kenya.
- Wetter than normal conditions expected …
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than normal conditions expected over western and northern parts of the country.
- Normal and cooler than normal conditions expected over south central and south eastern parts of the country.
Rainfall forecast
- Drier than normal conditions expected over a small area in the southern part of the country.
- Normal conditions expected over the rest of the country.