Our seasonal forecasts
Our seasonal forecasts help Eastern Africa prepare for the season and mitigate the effects of climate extremes.
October - December 2026
Rainfall
Temperature
- Southern Ethiopia, Somalia and cross border areas of Kenya, Uganda, and South Sudan are expected to experience maximum dry days of 8 to 10 days.
- Long wet spells expected over parts of Rwanda, Burundi, and Lake Victoria Regions in Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda.
- Onset expected to start in September and progress southwards following the southward progression of the rain band
- A delayed onset is expected in the western parts of the region, while early onset is expected in the eastern and southern parts
- Higest probability of seasonal rainfall exceeding 400 mm indicated over southern Somalia, southern Kenya, south-eastern Uganda, Burundi and north-western Tanzania
- Above normal temperatures are expected across most of the Greater Horn of Africa, with particularly high probabilities in Somalia, Ethiopia and coastal regions.
- Increased likelihood of wetter-than-normal conditions are predicted over most parts of the region with the highest probabilities over north-eastern Kenya, central to southern Somalia and south eastern Ethiopia
- The rest of the region indicates dominant probabilities of 55-85% of Above –normal rainfall
Seasonal forecasts
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Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions expected over the whole country.
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over the whole country
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected across the region with the highest probabilities over Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, Rwanda, Burundi, and eastern Tanzania.
Rainfall forecast
- Drier than normal conditions expected over isolated areas in the country
- Wetter than average conditions expected over isolated area in the northern parts of the country
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than normal conditions expected all over the country
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than normal conditions expected all over the country
Rainfall forecast
- Drier than usual conditions predicted over southern Ethiopia, Uganda, western parts of Rwanda, Burundi, north-western Tanzania, and parts of southern Somalia.
- Wetter than usual rainfall conditions expected over parts of northern South Sudan, Ethiopia, and …
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over few areas in northern parts of the country
- Drier than usual conditions expected over some areas in central and southern parts of the country
Rainfall forecast
- Drier than norma lconditions expected over southern and part of north eastern areas of the country
- Average conditions expected over central and parts of northern areas of the country
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions expected over most parts of the region.
- Average temperatures likely to be recorded over small areas of western Ethiopia and Tanzania.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than normal conditions expected all over the country
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than normal conditions expected all over the country
Rainfall forecast
- Drier than normal conditions ex[pected over south western parts of the country
- Normal to drier than normal conditions expected over south eastern areas of the country
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over parts of central to southern Tanzania.
- Average conditions expected over areas of central Tanzania, eastern Kenya, and north-eastern Somalia.
- Drier than usual conditions expected over north-western Tanzania, Burundi, Rwanda, …
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions expected over most parts of the country.
- Average temperatures expected over some areas in south-western parts of the country.