Our seasonal forecasts
Our seasonal forecasts help Eastern Africa prepare for the season and mitigate the effects of climate extremes.
October - December 2026
Rainfall
Temperature
- Southern Ethiopia, Somalia and cross border areas of Kenya, Uganda, and South Sudan are expected to experience maximum dry days of 8 to 10 days.
- Long wet spells expected over parts of Rwanda, Burundi, and Lake Victoria Regions in Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda.
- Onset expected to start in September and progress southwards following the southward progression of the rain band
- A delayed onset is expected in the western parts of the region, while early onset is expected in the eastern and southern parts
- Higest probability of seasonal rainfall exceeding 400 mm indicated over southern Somalia, southern Kenya, south-eastern Uganda, Burundi and north-western Tanzania
- Above normal temperatures are expected across most of the Greater Horn of Africa, with particularly high probabilities in Somalia, Ethiopia and coastal regions.
- Increased likelihood of wetter-than-normal conditions are predicted over most parts of the region with the highest probabilities over north-eastern Kenya, central to southern Somalia and south eastern Ethiopia
- The rest of the region indicates dominant probabilities of 55-85% of Above –normal rainfall
Seasonal forecasts
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Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the region.
- Average conditions expected over small areas in western South Sudan and South-western Uganda.
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over a few places in western and north-eastern Tanzania.
- Normal conditions expected over most parts of Tanzania.
- Drier than usual conditions expected over areas in central Tanzania, Rwanda, and southern …
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions expected all over the country.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than normal conditions expected over most parts of the country.
- Near average temperatures expected over southern parts of the country.
Rainfall forecast
- Drier than normal conditions expected over the southern part of the country.
- The rest of the country is generally dry in DJF.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions expected over most parts of the region.
- Average temperatures expected over southern South Sudan, north-western Uganda, and northern Ethiopia.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than normal conditions expected all over the country.
Rainfall forecast
- Drier than usual conditions expected over central to south-western Kenya, southern Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, and Tanzania.
- The rest of the region is generally dry during this season.
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over southern areas of the country with pockets of average to below average conditions over south-eastern and western parts of the country.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions expected all over the country.
Temperature forecast
- Average temperatures expected over the western parts of the country.
- Colder than usual conditions expected over the eastern areas of the country.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions expected over most parts of Sudan, Eritrea, much of Ethiopia, Djibouti, Somalia, Kenya, southern Uganda and Tanzania.
- Average temperatures expected over north-western and southern areas of Sudan, western South Sudan, northern …
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over southern South Sudan, and northern and south-western Uganda.
- Drier than usual conditions expected over Kenya, southern Ethiopia, Somalia, Tanzania, Burundi, Rwanda, and southern parts of Uganda.
Rainfall forecast
- Drier than usual conditions expected all over the country.