Our seasonal forecasts
Our seasonal forecasts help Eastern Africa prepare for the season and mitigate the effects of climate extremes.
June - September
Rainfall
Temperature
- Longest dry-spell lengths after onset expected over western Kenya, eastern Uganda, southern Ethiopia, northern Sudan.
- Much of the region is likely to experience first dry-spell length ranging from 4 to 8 days
- Longer wet-spell lengths after seasonal onset are expected over parts of northwestern Ethiopia, while shorter wet-spell lengths are anticipated over northeastern Ethiopia and Sudan
- The onset of rainfall shows a progression from south to north following the movement of the ITCZ.
- Enhanced probabilities of a late onset are indicated across much of the region. However, parts of southwestern, north-central Ethiopia, and parts of Sudan show likelihood of an early to near-normal onset
- Significantly higher likelihood for above-normal temperatures are indicated across the vast majority of the Greater Horn of Africa region.
- The highest probabilities of above-normal temperatures are concentrated over northern Sudan, most parts of South Sudan and Ethiopia
- Wettern than normal conditions indicated over parts of coastal Somalia and Kenya, northern Sudan, southern Ethiopia, and northern Somalia while near-normal conditions are expected over most of central Sudan.
- Enhanced likelihood Below-normal rainfall across much of the northern GHA, including South Sudan, Ethiopia, parts of Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, Uganda, and western Kenya.
Seasonal forecasts
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Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions are expected over the whole country.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions are expected all over the country.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions likely over eastern, north-eastern and isolated areas in western parts of the country.
- Usual conditions likely over western and northern parts of the country.
- Cooler than usual conditions likely over south …
Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over the north-eastern parts of the country.
- Usual conditions likely over the rest of the country.
Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
- Wetter than usual conditions likely over most parts of the country.
- Usual conditions likely over western parts of the country.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions likely over central, northern and part of southern areas of the country.
- Usual conditions likely over few areas in the central parts of the country.
- Cooler than usual conditions likely over …
Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
- Wetter than usual conditions are expected over much of western Kenya, eastern Uganda, eastern South Sudan, areas in central and western Ethiopia, north-eastern Somalia, localized areas in Rwanda and Burundi, and Tanzania.
- Usual conditions are …
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions are expected over much of Kenya, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Djibouti, northern areas of Somalia, north-eastern and north-western South Sudan, much of Sudan, western Uganda, Rwanda, northern parts of Burundi, and coastal Tanzania. …
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions expected over coastal, central, and north-western Kenya, western Tanzania, Burundi, Rwanda, western Uganda, northern parts of South Sudan, much of Ethiopia, northern Somalia, Djibouti, Eritrea, and Sudan.
- Usual temperature conditions likely …
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions likely over the northern parts of the country.
- Usual temperature conditions likely over the entire central parts of the country.
- Cooler than usual conditions likely over the southern parts of the …
Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
- Wetter than usual conditions over most parts of the country.
- Usual conditions likely over few areas in southern and north-eastern parts of the country.
- Drier than usual conditions over north-western and part of north-eastern areas …
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions likely over central and northern parts of the country.
- Cooler than usual conditions likely over the southern part of the country.
Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
- Wetter than average conditions likely over much of Tanzania, Burundi, Rwanda; western, south-western and part of north-eastern Kenya, much of Somalia, Uganda, and south-eastern South Sudan.
- Usual conditions likely over the southern border of Tanzania, …
Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
- Wetter than usual conditions likely over central and south-eastern parts of the country.
- Usual conditions likely over south-western part of the country.
Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
Rainfall Forecast January - March 2021
Headlines: Drier than usual conditions are expected over Ethiopia, western Kenya, central Uganda, and north-western Tanzania.
- Drier than usual conditions are expected over central, eastern and south-western Ethiopia; western …