Our seasonal forecasts
Our seasonal forecasts help Eastern Africa prepare for the season and mitigate the effects of climate extremes.
June - September
Rainfall
Temperature
- Longest dry-spell lengths after onset expected over western Kenya, eastern Uganda, southern Ethiopia, northern Sudan.
- Much of the region is likely to experience first dry-spell length ranging from 4 to 8 days
- Longer wet-spell lengths after seasonal onset are expected over parts of northwestern Ethiopia, while shorter wet-spell lengths are anticipated over northeastern Ethiopia and Sudan
- The onset of rainfall shows a progression from south to north following the movement of the ITCZ.
- Enhanced probabilities of a late onset are indicated across much of the region. However, parts of southwestern, north-central Ethiopia, and parts of Sudan show likelihood of an early to near-normal onset
- Significantly higher likelihood for above-normal temperatures are indicated across the vast majority of the Greater Horn of Africa region.
- The highest probabilities of above-normal temperatures are concentrated over northern Sudan, most parts of South Sudan and Ethiopia
- Wettern than normal conditions indicated over parts of coastal Somalia and Kenya, northern Sudan, southern Ethiopia, and northern Somalia while near-normal conditions are expected over most of central Sudan.
- Enhanced likelihood Below-normal rainfall across much of the northern GHA, including South Sudan, Ethiopia, parts of Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, Uganda, and western Kenya.
Seasonal forecasts
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Temperature forecast
Temperature Forecast January - March 2021
- Warmer than average temperature conditions are expected over much of the northern parts of the region including Sudan, South Sudan, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Djibouti, Somalia, Rwanda and Burundi.
- Below average …
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions likely over much of southern western and northern parts of the country
- Average conditions likely over central and eastern parts of the country
Temperature forecast
- Most parts of the region are expected to record warmer than usual temperatures, especially eastern Kenya, northeastern Ethiopia, northern Sudan, western Rwanda, and southwestern Uganda.
- Average temperatures are expected over southern, central, and western …
Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
- Drier than usual conditions are expected over much of Kenya (especially northern Wajir and eastern parts of Marsabit counties), north-western Tanzania, southern Uganda, south-western Ethiopia, coastal lines of Djibouti, and Eritrea. Farmers, pastoralists, and all …
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions likely over southern and north western parts of the country
- Average temperature conditions likely over areas in north eastern parts of the country