Our seasonal forecasts
Our seasonal forecasts help Eastern Africa prepare for the season and mitigate the effects of climate extremes.
October - December 2026
Rainfall
Temperature
- Southern Ethiopia, Somalia and cross border areas of Kenya, Uganda, and South Sudan are expected to experience maximum dry days of 8 to 10 days.
- Long wet spells expected over parts of Rwanda, Burundi, and Lake Victoria Regions in Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda.
- Onset expected to start in September and progress southwards following the southward progression of the rain band
- A delayed onset is expected in the western parts of the region, while early onset is expected in the eastern and southern parts
- Higest probability of seasonal rainfall exceeding 400 mm indicated over southern Somalia, southern Kenya, south-eastern Uganda, Burundi and north-western Tanzania
- Above normal temperatures are expected across most of the Greater Horn of Africa, with particularly high probabilities in Somalia, Ethiopia and coastal regions.
- Increased likelihood of wetter-than-normal conditions are predicted over most parts of the region with the highest probabilities over north-eastern Kenya, central to southern Somalia and south eastern Ethiopia
- The rest of the region indicates dominant probabilities of 55-85% of Above –normal rainfall
Seasonal forecasts
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Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than normal conditions expected over south eastern parts of the country.
- Average conditions expected over the rest of the country.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than normal conditions expected all over the country.
Rainfall forecast
- Drier than normal conditions expected over a small area in the southern part of the country.
- Normal conditions expected over the rest of the country.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than normal conditions expected over western and northern parts of the country.
- Normal and cooler than normal conditions expected over south central and south eastern parts of the country.
Rainfall forecast
- Drier than normal conditions expected over a few areas in north-eastern Kenya and south-western Somalia.
- Near normal conditions expected over most of Ethiopia, Eritrea, Uganda, South Sudan, and central Kenya.
- Wetter than normal conditions expected …
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than normal temperatures expected over Kenya, Ethiopia, Djibouti, Somalia, Sudan, South Sudan, Burundi, central Uganda, and a few areas in western and eastern Tanzania.
- Near normal temperatures expected over southern parts of South Sudan, …
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than normal temperatures are expected over most parts of the region, especially over much of Sudan, South Sudan, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Djibouti, Somalia Kenya, Rwanda, and Burundi.
- Normal to below normal temperatures expected over southern …
Rainfall forecast
- The updated forecast for March to May (MAM) 2022 season indicates expanded drier than normal conditions in much of the eastern parts of the Greater Horn of Africa covering Eritrea, much of Ethiopia, western South …
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions expected over much of Sudan, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Djibouti, central and southern Somalia, central South Sudan, Kenya, south-western Uganda, southern areas of Rwanda, Burundi, and western and southern Tanzania.
- Usual temperature conditions …
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions expected over most parts of the country.
- Usual temperature conditions expected over areas in north western parts of the country.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions expected over south-western and eastern parts of the country.
- Usual temperature conditions expected over southern and northern areas of the country.
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over most parts of the country.
- Usual conditions expected over a few areas in north-western and north-eastern parts of the country.
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over much of the region.
- Usual conditions expected over western Uganda, south-western South Sudan, central Ethiopia, and south-eastern Tanzania.
- Drier than usual conditions expected over a few areas in north-eastern …
Rainfall forecast
- Usual to wetter than usual conditions expected over the southern areas of the country.
- The rest of the country is generally dry during this period.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions expected in most parts of the country
- Average conditions expected over south eastern areas of the country