Our seasonal forecasts
Our seasonal forecasts help Eastern Africa prepare for the season and mitigate the effects of climate extremes.
October - December 2026
Rainfall
Temperature
- Southern Ethiopia, Somalia and cross border areas of Kenya, Uganda, and South Sudan are expected to experience maximum dry days of 8 to 10 days.
- Long wet spells expected over parts of Rwanda, Burundi, and Lake Victoria Regions in Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda.
- Onset expected to start in September and progress southwards following the southward progression of the rain band
- A delayed onset is expected in the western parts of the region, while early onset is expected in the eastern and southern parts
- Higest probability of seasonal rainfall exceeding 400 mm indicated over southern Somalia, southern Kenya, south-eastern Uganda, Burundi and north-western Tanzania
- Above normal temperatures are expected across most of the Greater Horn of Africa, with particularly high probabilities in Somalia, Ethiopia and coastal regions.
- Increased likelihood of wetter-than-normal conditions are predicted over most parts of the region with the highest probabilities over north-eastern Kenya, central to southern Somalia and south eastern Ethiopia
- The rest of the region indicates dominant probabilities of 55-85% of Above –normal rainfall
Seasonal forecasts
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Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual temperatures are expected over much of the region with the highest chances over most of Ethiopia, Djibouti, north-eastern Kenya, and southern Somalia.
- Normal temperature conditions are likely over cross border areas of …
Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over much of Kenya and Tanzania, southern Uganda, parts of eastern Burundi, and Rwanda.
- Drier than usual conditions are expected over north-eastern parts of Ethiopia.
- Usual conditions are expected over …
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions expected all over the country
Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
- Drier than usual conditions are expected over Kenya southern parts of Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, and Tanzania.
- Usual conditions are expected over western, southern and coastal Tanzania.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions are expected over much of the region with highest chances over areas in Kenya, Somalia, Ethiopia, and Sudan.
- Usual temperature conditions are expected over a few areas in north-eastern Somalia and …
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions are expected over the whole country.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions are expected all over the country.
Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over the north-eastern parts of the country.
- Usual conditions likely over the rest of the country.
Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
- Wetter than usual conditions are expected over much of western Kenya, eastern Uganda, eastern South Sudan, areas in central and western Ethiopia, north-eastern Somalia, localized areas in Rwanda and Burundi, and Tanzania.
- Usual conditions are …
Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
- Wetter than usual conditions likely over most parts of the country.
- Usual conditions likely over western parts of the country.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions are expected over much of Kenya, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Djibouti, northern areas of Somalia, north-eastern and north-western South Sudan, much of Sudan, western Uganda, Rwanda, northern parts of Burundi, and coastal Tanzania. …
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions likely over central, northern and part of southern areas of the country.
- Usual conditions likely over few areas in the central parts of the country.
- Cooler than usual conditions likely over …
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions likely over eastern, north-eastern and isolated areas in western parts of the country.
- Usual conditions likely over western and northern parts of the country.
- Cooler than usual conditions likely over south …
Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
- Wetter than usual conditions over most parts of the country.
- Usual conditions likely over few areas in southern and north-eastern parts of the country.
- Drier than usual conditions over north-western and part of north-eastern areas …
Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
- Wetter than usual conditions likely over central and south-eastern parts of the country.
- Usual conditions likely over south-western part of the country.