Our seasonal forecasts
Our seasonal forecasts help Eastern Africa prepare for the season and mitigate the effects of climate extremes.
May - July 2024
Rainfall
Temperature
- Warmer than usual temperatures indicated over the whole region.
- The highest probabilities are indicated over parts of Sudan, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Somalia, eastern Kenya and coastal Tanzania.
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over most parts of the northern sectors of the region, specifically in much of Sudan, South Sudan, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Djibouti, Somalia, Uganda, and western and coastal Kenya.
- Drier than usual conditions expected over isolated areas of southern Somalia, western Ethiopia, western Sudan and central Uganda.
Seasonal forecasts
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Probability Onset
- Early onset forecasted over the eastern parts of the region, with high probabilities over parts of eastern Kenya, Tanzania, and southern Somalia.
- Delayed onset expected over western parts of the region.
Length of wet spells
- Longer-than-usual wet spells expected over southern Somalia, much of Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, and western Tanzania.
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter-than-usual conditions expected over most parts of the region.
- Higher chances of wetter-than-usual conditions indicated over the eastern parts of the region.
- Drier-than-usual conditions expected over south-western parts of Uganda and isolated areas in western …
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual temperatures indicated over the whole region.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions expected over the whole country.
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over southern and part of north-eastern areas of the country.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions expected over the whole country.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer-than-usual conditions expected across the GHA.
- Enhanced probabilities for warmer-than-usual temperatures over parts of Tanzania, Kenya, Somalia, Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Djibouti.
- High chances of cooler-than-usual temperatures indicated over eastern parts of Kenya.
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over the whole country.
Probability of 300 mm
- High chances of exceeding 300 mm over southern Somalia, eastern Kenya, southern Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, and western Tanzania
Onset anomalies
- Early onset expected over central parts of the region; late onset expected over the eastern parts.
Rainfall forecast
- Drier than usual conditions expected over coastal Sudan, equatorial and southern parts of the region with enhanced probabilities over eastern Kenya and southern parts of Somalia.
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over central to eastern …
Probability of 300 mm
- High chances of rainfall exceeding 300mm over south-western Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, and adjacent areas of Tanzania.
Anomaly Wet spell
- Shorter than average wet spell expected over southern Somalia, south-western South Sudan, Rwanda, Burundi, and Tanzania.