Our seasonal forecasts
Our seasonal forecasts help Eastern Africa prepare for the season and mitigate the effects of climate extremes.
October - December 2026
Rainfall
Temperature
- Southern Ethiopia, Somalia and cross border areas of Kenya, Uganda, and South Sudan are expected to experience maximum dry days of 8 to 10 days.
- Long wet spells expected over parts of Rwanda, Burundi, and Lake Victoria Regions in Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda.
- Onset expected to start in September and progress southwards following the southward progression of the rain band
- A delayed onset is expected in the western parts of the region, while early onset is expected in the eastern and southern parts
- Higest probability of seasonal rainfall exceeding 400 mm indicated over southern Somalia, southern Kenya, south-eastern Uganda, Burundi and north-western Tanzania
- Above normal temperatures are expected across most of the Greater Horn of Africa, with particularly high probabilities in Somalia, Ethiopia and coastal regions.
- Increased likelihood of wetter-than-normal conditions are predicted over most parts of the region with the highest probabilities over north-eastern Kenya, central to southern Somalia and south eastern Ethiopia
- The rest of the region indicates dominant probabilities of 55-85% of Above –normal rainfall
Seasonal forecasts
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Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
- Usual conditions expected all over the country.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions likely all over the country.
Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
- Drier than usual conditions likely over the country with the north-eastern and central areas likely to record usual conditions.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions likely to be recorded all over the country, with a small area over the south-east likely to record usual temperatures.
Onset anomalies
- Generally delayed onset over the eastern part of the region.
Anomaly Wet spell
- Fewer than usual wet spells over the western borders of the region.
- Higher than usual wet spells over the central areas of the region.
Probability of 300 mm
- Higher chances of rainfall exceeding 300 mm during October to December (OND) over western areas of the region.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual temperatures conditions are expected over most parts of the region.
- Usual temperature conditions are expected over much of western and south-western Tanzania, mount Elgon areas of Kenya and Uganda, parts of north-western …
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions likely to be recorded all over the country.