Our seasonal forecasts
Our seasonal forecasts help Eastern Africa prepare for the season and mitigate the effects of climate extremes.
June - September
Rainfall
Temperature
- Longest dry-spell lengths after onset expected over western Kenya, eastern Uganda, southern Ethiopia, northern Sudan.
- Much of the region is likely to experience first dry-spell length ranging from 4 to 8 days
- Longer wet-spell lengths after seasonal onset are expected over parts of northwestern Ethiopia, while shorter wet-spell lengths are anticipated over northeastern Ethiopia and Sudan
- The onset of rainfall shows a progression from south to north following the movement of the ITCZ.
- Enhanced probabilities of a late onset are indicated across much of the region. However, parts of southwestern, north-central Ethiopia, and parts of Sudan show likelihood of an early to near-normal onset
- Significantly higher likelihood for above-normal temperatures are indicated across the vast majority of the Greater Horn of Africa region.
- The highest probabilities of above-normal temperatures are concentrated over northern Sudan, most parts of South Sudan and Ethiopia
- Wettern than normal conditions indicated over parts of coastal Somalia and Kenya, northern Sudan, southern Ethiopia, and northern Somalia while near-normal conditions are expected over most of central Sudan.
- Enhanced likelihood Below-normal rainfall across much of the northern GHA, including South Sudan, Ethiopia, parts of Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, Uganda, and western Kenya.
Seasonal forecasts
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Onset anomalies
Rains are expected to start late (compared to the 1981-2010 average onset) over Tanzania, Burundi, eastern Kenya, southern and central Somalia, and south-eastern Ethiopia. On the other hand, rains are expected to start earlier than …
Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
- Wetter than usual rainfall conditions likely to be recorded over parts of central, north-eastern and south-western parts of the country.
- Usual rainfall conditions likely to be recorded over the rest of the country; with a …
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions likely to be recorded all over the country.
Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
- Wetter than usual rainfall conditions expected over isolated areas in central and north-eastern parts of the country.
- Usual rainfall conditions likely to be recorded over much of central and north-eastern parts of the country.
- Drier …
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual temperatures conditions are expected over most parts of the region.
- Usual temperature conditions are expected over much of western and south-western Tanzania, mount Elgon areas of Kenya and Uganda, parts of north-western …
Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
- Wetter than usual conditions are expected over southern parts of Sudan, parts of South Sudan, the western border of Ethiopia, small areas in north-eastern Ethiopia, and the south-western border of Uganda.
- Usual rainfall conditions expected …
Onset dates
Rains are expected to start late (compared to the 1981-2010 average onset) over Tanzania, Burundi, eastern Kenya, southern and central Somalia, and south-eastern Ethiopia. On the other hand, rains are expected to start earlier than …
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual temperature conditions likely to be recorded all over the country.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than normusual conditions expected over the whole country.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than normal conditions are expected over most parts of the region.
- Normal to cooler than normal temperature conditions likely to be recorded over parts of central Kenya and Ethiopia, northern Eritrea and coastal areas …
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than normal conditions expected over the whole country.
Rainfall forecast
- Normal to wetter than normal conditions expected over parts of Burundi, and western to southern areas of Tanzania.
- Drier than normal conditions expected over central to southern Kenya, southern Uganda, eastern and western Rwanda, …