Our seasonal forecasts
Our seasonal forecasts help Eastern Africa prepare for the season and mitigate the effects of climate extremes.
October - December 2026
Rainfall
Temperature
- Southern Ethiopia, Somalia and cross border areas of Kenya, Uganda, and South Sudan are expected to experience maximum dry days of 8 to 10 days.
- Long wet spells expected over parts of Rwanda, Burundi, and Lake Victoria Regions in Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda.
- Onset expected to start in September and progress southwards following the southward progression of the rain band
- A delayed onset is expected in the western parts of the region, while early onset is expected in the eastern and southern parts
- Higest probability of seasonal rainfall exceeding 400 mm indicated over southern Somalia, southern Kenya, south-eastern Uganda, Burundi and north-western Tanzania
- Above normal temperatures are expected across most of the Greater Horn of Africa, with particularly high probabilities in Somalia, Ethiopia and coastal regions.
- Increased likelihood of wetter-than-normal conditions are predicted over most parts of the region with the highest probabilities over north-eastern Kenya, central to southern Somalia and south eastern Ethiopia
- The rest of the region indicates dominant probabilities of 55-85% of Above –normal rainfall
Seasonal forecasts
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Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
- Wetter than usual rainfall conditions likely to be recorded over parts of central, north-eastern and south-western parts of the country.
- Usual rainfall conditions likely to be recorded over the rest of the country; with a …
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual temperatures conditions are expected over most parts of the region.
- Usual temperature conditions are expected over much of western and south-western Tanzania, mount Elgon areas of Kenya and Uganda, parts of north-western …
Onset dates
Rains are expected to start late (compared to the 1981-2010 average onset) over Tanzania, Burundi, eastern Kenya, southern and central Somalia, and south-eastern Ethiopia. On the other hand, rains are expected to start earlier than …
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions likely to be recorded all over the country.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual temperature conditions likely to be recorded all over the country.
Onset anomalies
Rains are expected to start late (compared to the 1981-2010 average onset) over Tanzania, Burundi, eastern Kenya, southern and central Somalia, and south-eastern Ethiopia. On the other hand, rains are expected to start earlier than …
Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
- Wetter than usual conditions are expected over southern parts of Sudan, parts of South Sudan, the western border of Ethiopia, small areas in north-eastern Ethiopia, and the south-western border of Uganda.
- Usual rainfall conditions expected …
Temperature forecast
- Above normal temperatures expected over the whole country.
Temperature forecast
- Above normal temperatures expected over the whole country.
Temperature forecast
- Above normal temperatures are expected over the region with the highest probabilities indicated over northern and central areas of the regions.
Rainfall forecast
- Above normal rainfall expected over most parts of the country including the western and southern regions.
- Below normal rainfall expected over central to north-eastern areas of the country.
Rainfall forecast
- Above normal rainfall is expected over most parts of the region including parts of Ethiopia, South Sudan, Somalia, Djibouti, Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, and northern Tanzania.
- Below normal rainfall is expected over parts of central …
Rainfall forecast
- Above normal rainfall expected over the whole country.