Our seasonal forecasts
Our seasonal forecasts help Eastern Africa prepare for the season and mitigate the effects of climate extremes.
June - September
Rainfall
Temperature
- Longest dry-spell lengths after onset expected over western Kenya, eastern Uganda, southern Ethiopia, northern Sudan.
- Much of the region is likely to experience first dry-spell length ranging from 4 to 8 days
- Longer wet-spell lengths after seasonal onset are expected over parts of northwestern Ethiopia, while shorter wet-spell lengths are anticipated over northeastern Ethiopia and Sudan
- The onset of rainfall shows a progression from south to north following the movement of the ITCZ.
- Enhanced probabilities of a late onset are indicated across much of the region. However, parts of southwestern, north-central Ethiopia, and parts of Sudan show likelihood of an early to near-normal onset
- Significantly higher likelihood for above-normal temperatures are indicated across the vast majority of the Greater Horn of Africa region.
- The highest probabilities of above-normal temperatures are concentrated over northern Sudan, most parts of South Sudan and Ethiopia
- Wettern than normal conditions indicated over parts of coastal Somalia and Kenya, northern Sudan, southern Ethiopia, and northern Somalia while near-normal conditions are expected over most of central Sudan.
- Enhanced likelihood Below-normal rainfall across much of the northern GHA, including South Sudan, Ethiopia, parts of Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, Uganda, and western Kenya.
Seasonal forecasts
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Rainfall forecast
- Drier than usual conditions expected over most parts of the country.
Temperature forecast
- Normal to cooler than normal conditions expected over Sudan, western Eritrea, northern Ethiopia, parts of northern Somalia, central to western Kenya, north-eastern Uganda, south-eastern South Sudan and part of southern Tanzania.
- Warmer than usual conditions …
Rainfall forecast
- Drier than usual conditions expected over north-western parts of the country.
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over the rest of the country.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions expected over most parts of the country.
- Normal temperatures likely to be recorded over south-eastern parts of the country.
Rainfall forecast
- Drier than usual conditions expected over eastern Kenya, Somalia, Djibouti, northern-coastal and part of north-western Tanzania, south-eastern Ethiopia, and north-western South Sudan.
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over western Kenya, part of north-western Tanzania, Rwanda, …
Temperature forecast
- Normal to cooler than normal conditions expected over some places in the northern regions of the country.
- Warmer than usual conditions expected over the rest of the country.
Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over most parts of the country.
- Drier than usual conditions are expected over north-western part of the country.
Rainfall forecast
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over most parts of the northern sector of the region, western Kenya, Uganda and Rwanda.
- Drier than usual conditions expected over part of north-western South Sudan, south-eastern Ethiopia, central to …
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than average conditions are expected over northern and southern Sudan, eastern and western South Sudan, central to southern Ethiopia, Somalia, southern and north-eastern Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi and Tanzania.
- Normal to cooler than normal …
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions are expected over most parts of the country except over north-western parts where cooler than normal conditions are expected.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions expected over most parts of the country.
- Normal conditions are expected over parts of the central, north-eastern and south-eastern parts of the country.
Rainfall forecast (Total mm)
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over the northern parts of the country.
- Drier than usual conditions expected over part of northern and central to southern areas of the country
Rainfall forecast
- Drier than usual conditions expected over most parts of Kenya, southern Uganda, Rwanda, and north-western Tanzania.
- Normal to wetter than usual conditions expected over north-western Kenya and most parts of Tanzania.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions expected over the whole country.
Temperature forecast
- Warmer than usual conditions expected over most parts of the country.
- Normal conditions expected over north-western parts of the country.