October-December 2022
Rainfall
Temperature
- Shorter than average wet spell expected over southern Somalia, south-western South Sudan, Rwanda, Burundi, and Tanzania.
- Longest dry spell after onset expected in October over the western and north-eastern parts of the region, and in November and December respectively in Kenya and Tanzania.
- Western equatorial parts of the region to continue receiving rainfall through September.
- Onset expected in the north-eastern parts of the region in October, and move southwards reaching Tanzania in November.
- Early onset expected over central parts of the region; late onset expected over the eastern parts.
- High chances of rainfall exceeding 300mm over south-western Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, and adjacent areas of Tanzania.
- Warmer than average conditions indicated across the Greater horn of Africa (GHA). There are enhanced probabilities for warmer than average temperatures over parts of Tanzania, Kenya, Somalia and Djibouti.
- Average temperatures expected over much of South Sudan, south-eastern Sudan, and parts of western Ethiopia and northern Uganda.
- Cooler than usual conditions expected over northern Ethiopia and north-western Eritrea.
- Drier than usual conditions expected over coastal Sudan, equatorial and southern parts of the region with enhanced probabilities over eastern Kenya and southern parts of Somalia.
- Wetter than usual conditions expected over central to eastern South Sudan, parts of central, western and north-eastern Ethiopia.
