October - December 2026
Rainfall
Temperature
- Southern Ethiopia, Somalia and cross border areas of Kenya, Uganda, and South Sudan are expected to experience maximum dry days of 8 to 10 days.
- Long wet spells expected over parts of Rwanda, Burundi, and Lake Victoria Regions in Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda.
- Onset expected to start in September and progress southwards following the southward progression of the rain band
- A delayed onset is expected in the western parts of the region, while early onset is expected in the eastern and southern parts
- Higest probability of seasonal rainfall exceeding 400 mm indicated over southern Somalia, southern Kenya, south-eastern Uganda, Burundi and north-western Tanzania
- Above normal temperatures are expected across most of the Greater Horn of Africa, with particularly high probabilities in Somalia, Ethiopia and coastal regions.
- Increased likelihood of wetter-than-normal conditions are predicted over most parts of the region with the highest probabilities over north-eastern Kenya, central to southern Somalia and south eastern Ethiopia
- The rest of the region indicates dominant probabilities of 55-85% of Above –normal rainfall
